EUR/USD Struggling Against The Shorts

Peter Adamson

Well, we did get the reversal we were waiting for. It just came on Wednesday rather than Monday when we were expecting it. I would not let this daunt me. The market gave us two reversals precisely on the dates we were expecting them: 5 May and 15 May. It may have felt it was tipping its hand a bit too much, so it threw us a curve.

The reversal occurred two days after the forecast, but it reversed at the 61.8% retracement of the rally that began on 13 April. So far so good. We have time and price agreeing, and of course the usual smattering of after-the-fact news trying to explain why the Euro is rallying when everyone said it would do the opposite.
Yahoo News: EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Recovery Signalled Ahead
DailyFX: Dismal 1Q U.S. GDP Report to Fuel Larger EUR/USD Rebound.

But if you have been following my posts on EUR/USD you would not be surprised because the 360 week bear market for the Euro is over. Kaput. Done. Now let’s be clear about what I am not saying. I am not saying that the Euro is in for a 100 yard dash in the next 48 hours. The last time the market turned was in 2008 and it took 4 months. The recent bottom occurred on 13 March. So it would not be surprising to see the market continue to tease us until 13 July.

Right now it appears to be intent on but struggling to make new highs. Consider this to be a prelude to a short squeeze. However I am not sure there is enough buying power to accomplish this just yet. Keep an eye on it and watch the trend line at the bottom of the channel. If it breaks this line, we may be in for another six weeks of winter so to speak.

EUR/USD 1 Hour Chart