USDCAD Symmetrical Triangle Downside Break

Nenad Kerkez

The USDCAD continued to drop after a bearish breakout of the bottom triangle trend line and its exposed to more downside risks. On April 17 the meeting of OPEC and Russia will be held to confirm oil production cut backs. So far they have agreed to cut backs as they control 75% of world oil supply. Generally that is good for oil and oil price could keep climbing. Remember CAD is positively correlated to OIL, so OIL up CAD up too, and that means USDCAD down.

Technically we see a symmetrical triangle downside broken with 2 potential POCs. POC 1 is 1.2840-1.2855 zone (L4 previous breakout point, lowest triangle swing point, 23.6) while POC2 is 1.2910-30. (L3,38.2,lower trend line point). Target is 1.2732 and the break of 1.2732 will expose 1.2562 weekly target. I have also included a weekly chart snap shot (top right corner) that confirms my view.

Have in mind that USDCAD is generally OIL driven so any change in the fundamental view for OIL could reflect on USDCAD too. Technically it should remain below the triangle to confirm bearish bias and targets.

USDCAD 4 Hour Chart

USDCAD 4 Hour Chart