With all eyes firmly on the OPEC meeting this week to see if they cut oil production and raise the Oil price, other key items this week affecting USD is Advance GDP, Consumer Confidence, NFP and Unemployment rate. The EU reports its inflation numbers this week, a key concern for the ECB and Draghi also speaks again. EUR weakness may gain some traction as Italy holds its Constitutional Referendum, a No Vote win could lead to Renzi resigning, political instability in Italy and snap elections sooner rather than later. Bad debts held by Italian Banks stand near EU360Bn, and a No Vote along with political instability may lead to further pressures on Italian Banks ability to remain solvent and ensure the EU Banking systems is sound.
As we could see in the previous LIVE Session Recap video, the EUR/USD has perfectly rejected from 1.0660 zone and so far it has been rejecting it with strong momentum. Technically 1.0635-60 is still valid POC zone (H4, X cross, 61.8, historical sellers) but we also need to pay attention to a possible retracement (gray) trend line break. 4h close below could instill further bearish continuation towards 1.0540 and 1.0503. Rallies towards POC zone could possibly be shorted into providing that 1.0720 stands strong. Break below 1.0500 could target 1.0450.
EURUSD 4 Hour Chart