Today the ECB meets in an important meeting that may decide whether the ECB QE programme continues at the current rate of EU80Bn in Bonds per month and the duration of the overall programme. Some analysts are suggesting the programme rate may reduce but the overall duration remains the same or longer, hence more assets on the ECB Balance Sheet over the longer term. How the market reacts to this, is much to be seen. FOMC is scheduled for next week, and many analysts tip a rate hike in the US, along with Bond markets pricing at least a 25bps rise, however, I am more of the view that they will wait until Trump’s inauguration as President before they hike, so they might be waiting until the February 2017 meeting.
Technically the EUR/USD is under a retracement on 4h chart and it is touching important resistance. Sustained break above 1.0850 is hard at this point but due to ECB we need to be careful. Watch for possible rejection if 1.0850 is reached and close below the retracement trend line should signal another move down towards 1.0700 and 1.0650. Move below 1.0650 targets 1.0590 zone.
EURUSD 4 Hour Chart