The US Federal Reserve Bank (“the Fed”), has battled to ignite inflation since the GFC and up until now it has raised rates less frequently than the markets have expected, however, this approach may soon change. Today, the Fed is almost universally expected to raise its benchmark interest rates following strong NFP, full employment and an uptick in inflation. The forecast is that the FED will hike the rates by 0.25 % and the event will be volatile as the FED hike might have already been priced in. We need to watch important camarilla levels and POC zones.
Traders should focus on POC and 2 possible breakout points. The major range of the pair is 1.0720-1.0495. As EUR/USD has been sold on rallies as I have shown on Session Recap webinar and Pre-NFP coverage, the current POC 1.0660-75 is still valid for short on rallies (H5, ATR top, X cross) towards 1.0570 – Daily camarilla L4 support. Breakout of L4 should target L5 and Weekly L5 camarilla levels 1.0545 and 1.0495. The only exception to the upside could be the break of 1.0720 towards 1.0765 and that could happen if the FED doesn’t hike the rate today which would be a big surprise.
EURUSD Hourly Chart