All posts by Fawad Razaqzada

GBP/CHF Could Surge As SNB Responds To ECB’S Policy; UK GDP Eyed

Fawad Razaqzada

It has been a slow day in the FX markets today after last week’s ECB-inspired sell-off in the euro had raised volatility across many currency pairs. But one currency that has caught some attention today is the Swiss franc, which has been sold heavily in response to comments from the Swiss National Bank’s Vice President. In a Swiss newspaper on Sunday Mr Fritz Zurbruegg said that the SNB would be analysing more…

S&P 500 Surging Towards Major Resistance

Fawad Razaqzada

US stocks were trading sharply higher Thursday, tracking the massive gains seen across the European markets after the ECB President Mario Draghi delivered a surprisingly dovish message at the much-anticipated press conference earlier today. Without going too much into any technical details, the long and short of it is that the ECB’s bond buying stimulus package could be beefed up as early as the Bank’s December meeting, while interest rates could also be cut to negative. Unsurprisingly, the euro tanked, while the higher-yielding currencies and stocks have rallied across the board. more…

WTI Extends Decline As Crude Stocks Increase Sharply

Fawad Razaqzada

Undoubtedly, a growing number of people – myself included – are no longer expecting the current oil market imbalance to correct itself as fast as it had appeared to be the case up until a week ago. Several things have changed in recent days, not least for example the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest outlook with the oil forecaster no longer envisaging strong demand growth in 2016. more…

Crude Oil Prices Gushing Higher

Fawad Razaqzada

WTI crude oil prices surged higher at the start of the week before falling slightly on Wednesday on the back the latest weekly EIA crude oil stocks data which showed a surprise build of 3.1 million barrels for the week ending October 2. But speculators have been quick to dismiss that small but noticeable rise on seasonal factors, as after all the end of the summer driving season more…

Volatile Day For Crude And Canadian Dollar

Fawad Razaqzada

Crude oil and crude-related assets like the Canadian dollar have had a volatile session Thursday. Oil prices were initially higher and were on course to finish in the black for the third consecutive session. Sentiment in the oil market was improved on increased geopolitical risks arising from Russia’s military intervention in Syria and worries about supply outages in the US due to the developing Hurricane Joaquin. In addition, risk sentiment had improved more…

US Stocks: Is This The Turning Point (Lower)?

Fawad Razaqzada

The movements of stock prices in the days prior to the Fed’s rate decision on Thursday appeared to be the typical “buy the rumour, sell the news” sort of behaviour. But when the news hit the wires, traders initially hesitated to push the ‘sell’ button because there was an element of surprise in the FOMC statement that was probably not priced in. Not only did one FOMC member vote to cut rates into the negative, but the dot plot showed that the median policy maker now expects core inflation to remain below the bank’s 2% target until 2018 and the long-term unemployment rate was revised down to 4.9%, suggesting there is less urgency to hike interest rates. So, to account for this surprise, they waited a bit longer before ‘dumping’ stocks. more…

Crude Holding Up Well Despite More Bearish News

Fawad Razaqzada

Judging by Thursday’s and most recent price action, crude oil is continuing to shrug off bearish news. This suggests that most of the negative news may now be priced in, which in turn implies that prices may have hit a bottom. But it is still early days and there are no concrete signals to confirm this thesis. Therefore, crude oil speculators should proceed with extra caution now and trade what they see rather than what they would like to see on their charts. more…

AUD/NZD: On The Verge Of Breakdown?

Fawad Razaqzada

The AUD/NZD is probably not under many traders’ radars at the moment given for example the sharp moves in stocks and the US dollar recently, but this cross could be one for those who would like to take the greenback totally out of the equation. The AUD/NZD surged higher in early April from a low of just above parity to a high so far this year of about 1.1425/30. The rally thus took out the 2014 high of 1.1300. But as can be seen on the chart, the bulls were unable to hold their ground there for too long and prices have generally held below this handle for this best part of the past two months, without causing too much pain for the bulls. more…