All posts by Grega Horvat

AUD/USD Could Break Lower In Days Ahead

Grega Horvat

A few weeks back AUDUSD has turned bullish for some time, but most likely only temporary as rally from the low was having an overlapping structure. We know that this is a characteristics of a contra-trend price action, so trend remains bearish for now within impulse that is in play since mid-2014. We see market moving sharply lower now after broken upward channel, so wave (5) is in play for a move down to 0.7100-0.7300 area. more…

AUD/USD: Bearish Reversal Confirmed

Grega Horvat

AUD/USD has turned up in the past few months, but most likely only temporary as the rally from the low is having an overlapping structure. We know that this is a characteristic of a contra-trend price action, so trend remains bearish for now within impulse that is in play since mid-2014. Ideally, market is now breaking lower, down into wave (5) after recent push beneath the channel line. That said, an impulsive decline could unfold towards April lows. more…

S&P500 Looks For Turning Point

Grega Horvat

S&P500 reached new high as expected, about we talked about in our past updates. We were looking for a three wave rally up into wave 5 that are now visible from 2056 which means that ending diagonal from mid-Mach can be coming to an end. We see price now at important resistance area so traders must be aware of a strong bearish turn in days ahead. However, only an impulse back to the lower side of a pattern will confirm a turning point. more…

GOLD: Possible Bounce For New Low

Grega Horvat

Back in March gold price fell close to former lows, so we think that downtrend is still in play, especially if we consider the fact that rally from 1131 to 1306 was made by three waves. As such, we labeled that recovery as wave 4 that is part of an ending diagonal in wave 5). With that said, we will be looking for a possible bounce from new low, from around 1100 area later this year. But for now, bears are still here and expected to resume after current subwave (b) that can be looking for resistance at 1240/1260 resistance area, from where we expect a turn down into wave (c) of 5). more…

S&P500: Bullish Waves Could Slow Down At 2130-2140

Grega Horvat

S&P500 bounced nicely from 2056 levels last week and recovered with clear impulsive manner that caused more strength this week. we were looking for move to a new high which were achieved yesterday, so we need to keep in mind that S&P can be in late stages of an ending diagonal. If we are correct then reversal down will follow in sessions ahead, most likely from around 2130/2140 area. more…

GBP/USD: Bullish Swings In Play Within A Zig-Zag

Grega Horvat

GBP/USD keeps trading higher so we are looking now at a new wave count that shows A-B-C rally from April lows. That’s called a zigzag pattern that has a 5-3-5 structure. Based on latest bullish swings, we assume that wave C is in play but still incomplete as we need five waves before we may look for a bearish turn. At the moment we see prices in an extended blue subwave (iii) that can be looking for a move up to 1.5800 and then even to 1.5900 after fourth wave retracement. So for now, bullish trend remains in play, unless we see a turn back to 1.5357. more…

USD/CAD Can Turn Back To Bullish Mode

Grega Horvat

USD/CAD is making a deep retracement but still with three waves from the highs with current wave C) approaching to 38.2% Fibonacci level where it may complete a corrective fourth wave. Despite a strong bearish turn last week, we see big trend bullish, so we would not be surprised if pair will find support this week. Ideally, market will move back above 1.2400 that will put wave (5) in play for a new high. On the downside pair could be looking for a support at 1.1900-1.2000 zone. more…

USD Index: Eyes New High After Correction

Grega Horvat

USD remains clearly bullish on daily chart with higher highs and higher swing lows forming since May 2014. Currently we see price moving sideways, in a corrective pattern that can lift price into V, towards 102 or even 104 level but only if we will get a bounce up from current trendline. more…

Crude OIL: Looking Higher Towards $60 Level

Grega Horvat

Crude oil fell to a new low in March but this does not mean that corrective fourth wave is complete. In fact, price turned up very sharply in the last couple of weeks, so it looks like that wave four is going to be bigger than on the first place. We however are still looking at a three wave rally that can stop at former wave four, near $60 per barrel. more…

EURUSD: Corrective Wave Still Unfolding

Grega Horvat

EURUSD turned sharply up last week back to mid-range from the last two months so it looks like that corrective wave is still unfolding. We are tracking wave IV now that is part of ongoing five wave decline in wave C) which could break down to around parity before EUR bears can be finished. Wave V could send price to new lows before the summer of this year. more…