All posts by Grega Horvat

EURUSD : Bearish Waves In Play

Gregor Horvat

Finally, EURUSD weakness is here; pair fell sharply last week through 1.1300 level and even finished trading on Friday beneath 1.1081 which was our minimum objective target. But because of very strong downside momentum with impulsive price action we think that pair will fall much deeper. As such, any bounce in the meantime, will be corrective. First one may already occur this week with wave 4 retracement back to around 1.1080-1.1130 resistance from where we would expect more downside. Generally speaking we see pair now in strong bearish mode, with first five waves from 1.1496 headed to 1.0800/1.0900 area.
more…

EURUSD : More Bearish Momentum Is Expected

Gregor Horvat

EURUSD fell sharply lower last week with accelerating price action beneath 1.1000 level which confirms a continuation of a downtrend. We see huge possibility for wave (3) in progress that is part of a big five wave move within wave V that began unfolding at the end of September, away from 1.1700. Based on current very strong bearish momentum we may see extension towards 1.0400-1.0500 area this year, where we see Fibonacci levels for wave (3). For now invalidation level remains at 1.1500; as long it will hold trend is down. more…

GBPUSD Trading Near Resistance; Downtrend Continuation May Be Near

Gregor Horvat

Pound has moved higher last week, more than we anticipated but still with potential corrective structure. We see three legs from the lows with wave (c) now trading near resistance. Usually corrections of second waves will retrace for nearly 50-61.8% compared to previous five wave move which in our case is very near so bearish turn may follow in sessions ahead. At the same time we also see cable at resistance of the previous swing low from Sep 16th. Technically speaking bears can cause a turning point soon, but downtrend continuation will be confirmed only when price goes beneath 1.5244. more…

USDCAD Can Still Be In A Corrective Phase

Gregor Horvat

USDCAD is turning sharply down from recent highs, which could be start of a new bearish cycle. However, we will always try to label the count so that we will stay with a trend. As such, we adjusted the labeling to a flat in wave 4) which can still drop nearly 300 pips before market can be looking for a support. At the moment we are tracking sub-wave C to 1.2950. Ideally more…

EURUSD Could Trade Lower

Gregor Horvat

EURUSD moved sharply to the upside In August, up to 1.1700 area from where price turned nicely down two weeks back. A sharp decline to 1.1100 suggests that pair found a top and most likely accomplished a corrective wave IV rally from March 11, that we labeled it now as three wave move with a triangle in the middle. That’s a completed contra-trend move that is pointing to weaker EUR now; down into wave V that will be targeting new lows. more…

GOLD Retraces Down For Correction, Eyes $1230

Gregor Horvat

Gold rallied towards the upper side of a downward channel where break can occur in September as rally from the low is having characteristics of an impulsive price action. If that’s the case then ending diagonal is completed which means that metal is turning bullish, but for final confirmation of a turning point and big uptrend we need to see broken red trendline resistance as well as 1306 swing. However, from a minimum expectations we see 1230 in play for weeks ahead. more…

USDJPY Trades Lower For Correction

Gregor Horvat

USDJPY fell sharply lower last week which can be an impulsive move, headed to lower levels based on very strong bearish momentum. That said, we labeled latest recovery as wave B that is part of a complex correction; probably a flat in wave 4) that will be targeting former wave four just beneath 119.00 area. We will be looking for a new turn up from that support region. more…