All posts by Grega Horvat

AUDUSD Looks For Correction

Gregor Horvat

AUDUSD is at new lows which has been expected in the last few months as rally from April to May highs has a clear corrective personality as mentioned at the time. We labeled it as wave (4), so current leg down from 0.8160 should then be wave (5), final leg within a bearish sequence. However, before we may look for a bottom formation we need five subwaves down into around 0.7000 area where bottom could be seen sometime this year. more…

USDCAD Eyes New High Around 1.3400

Gregor Horvat

On USDCAD we see more upside to come in weeks and months ahead, towards 1.3400 area where pair could accomplish wave C of a big second zigzag that is part of a contra-trend move from 2007 lows. The reason for more upside is latest pullback since March 2015 which looks like a temporary pause within uptrend. Once market will break above the highs from 2008 traders should be aware of a significant trend change, from bullish to bearish mode. more…

AUDUSD: Wave (5 ) In Play For 0.7300-0.7100

Gregor Horvat

Back in April AUDUSD has turned bullish for some time, but most likely only temporary as rally from the low was having an overlapping structure. We know that this is a characteristics of a contra-trend price action, so trend remains bearish for now within impulse that is in play since mid-2014.We see market moving sharply lower now after broken upward channel, so wave (5) is in play for a move down to 0.7100-0.7300 area. more…

GBP/USD Seems Bullish, Targeting 1.6000

Gregor Horvat

GBP/USD broke above May 14th high so looks like that rally since start of June is going to be impulsive. On the updated count we are looking at wave (C) that can rally up to around 1.6000 psychological level in days ahead. But nothing will move in straight line so traders must be aware of a short-term retracement back in wave 4 in the next few sessions, before uptrend will resume. Invalidation level is at 1.5444; as long it will hold trend is up. more…

Cable Could Be Eyeing Towards New Low

Gregor Horvat

Pound made deep and unexpected bounce in the last few weeks but recovery is still in three waves. In fact, we have seen some bearish turn in the last two weeks from highlighted Fibonacci levels. So if we consider that big trend is still down from last year highs, then we should be prepared on more weakness in days ahead, possibly back to the lows. However, it’s not a bad thing to focus on minimum expectations, which in our case means a fall to 1.5070. This is now very close, so a decisive break through that low, will also open door for 1.45 once again. more…

USD/JPY Could Hit 127-128 Before Bulls May Slow Down

Grega Horvat

USD/JPY is moved sharply up to our 125 projected level after recent break out of a bullish triangle. Triangle can occur in wave B, wave four, or wave X position. Because of a triangle in the middle of a big uptrend, we see it placed in wave four within an impulsive structure. Impulses will unfold in five waves before price will reverse, so we suspect that current leg higher is fifth wave, final part within much larger uptrend. With that in mind, we really have to be aware of a bearish reversal later this year. But for now, bullish momentum is still very strong and incomplete with the substructure in red wave 5), so we may see levels tested around 127/128 before bulls may come to an end. more…

AUD/USD Could Break Lower In Days Ahead

Grega Horvat

A few weeks back AUDUSD has turned bullish for some time, but most likely only temporary as rally from the low was having an overlapping structure. We know that this is a characteristics of a contra-trend price action, so trend remains bearish for now within impulse that is in play since mid-2014. We see market moving sharply lower now after broken upward channel, so wave (5) is in play for a move down to 0.7100-0.7300 area. more…

AUD/USD: Bearish Reversal Confirmed

Grega Horvat

AUD/USD has turned up in the past few months, but most likely only temporary as the rally from the low is having an overlapping structure. We know that this is a characteristic of a contra-trend price action, so trend remains bearish for now within impulse that is in play since mid-2014. Ideally, market is now breaking lower, down into wave (5) after recent push beneath the channel line. That said, an impulsive decline could unfold towards April lows. more…