All posts by Neal Gilbert

GBP/USD: Fed Speaks, Market Listens

Neal Gilbert

Dollar bulls were back in the saddle again on the first full trading day of this holiday shortened week as speeches from important Federal Reserve members has sparked a bit of USD love. Harkening back to late last week, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen didn’t mince any words in suggesting that rates will most likely be hiked this year, and Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer echoed that same sentiment shortly before lunchtime here in the US today. The confidence in which the two highest ranking members on the Fed’s voting board voiced their intentions has struck a chord with investors and the old saying about “Don’t Fight the Fed” is being respected. Potentially adding to the rate hike fever is the Richmond Fed’s Jeffrey Lacker, a noted hawk, who will be speaking to the LSU Graduate School later this evening. more…

USD/CHF: Hope for Dollar Bears?

Neal Gilbert

The second half of the North American trading session wasn’t as exuberant as the first half as early stock market gains turned lower in late trade and the USD couldn’t keep up the pace of its early week strength. Some of the reason could be that investors are looking at tomorrow’s event calendar and are realizing that the Federal Reserve will be releasing their monetary policy meeting minutes at 2pm ET. If we harken back to the day the Fed released their statement, you may remember that they were mildly hawkish, accounting most of the economic misses in Q1 2015 to “transitory” effects of weather and low oil prices. That hawkish stance may be exemplified in the minutes as it seems the Fed is hell-bent on raising interest rates in 2015 despite the market beginning to believe it may end up being 2016 before they are able to take the plunge. more…

GBP/JPY: Returning to the Channel

Neal Gilbert

The North American trading session has been a bit of a practice in duality as US data showed both strength and weakness with early releases. The employment situation continued to prove robust with Initial Jobless Claims falling by 1k from last week’s total to 264k and Continuing Jobless Claims remaining low as well. In fact, both of the employment figures this morning are showing 4 week averages at levels unseen since 2000, and are likely earning gold stars from the Federal Reserve. Since the Fed has employment as one of their cornerstones for rate decisions, the consistency and breadth of improvements are extremely encouraging. more…

NZD/JPY: Free Fallin’

Neal Gilbert

The second half of the North American trading day meandered along with very little fanfare for many trading instruments as market trends that started the day continued to persevere to the end of the day. Oil fell below $60 in WTI, the USD enjoyed a little bit of strength, and the NZD continued to get shellacked with reckless abandon. The reason why everyone is down on the Kiwi to start the week has to do with the belief that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be cutting rates not once, but twice before the calendar turns to 2016; a nearly opposite belief of what was expected to start the year. more…

AUD/CAD: Aussie’s Employment Turn

Neal Gilbert

North American markets once again had a rough go around today with the major US-centric equity markets making a third straight run lower. The USD didn’t fare much better, losing ground against the EUR, GBP, JPY, and CHF, but fared much better against the commodity currencies of AUD, NZD, and CAD. Part of the reason commodity currencies struggled may have to do with the fact that commodities either fell or went sideways for a majority of the day. WTI fell off after surging in the early hours, and the precious metals didn’t make any headlines in either direction. Of course, the commdollars could also be reacting to their own set of circumstances surrounding their employment situations. more…

AUD/CAD: Stevens vs. Poloz

Neal Gilbert

There has been very little action in the currency world at the start of the new week as most of the major currency pairs are lacking in the headline grabbing department. US equities, on the other hand, are racing out to record levels this morning potentially on expectations of solid earnings from Apple being released after the market closes this afternoon. Just because currencies aren’t providing any major talking points doesn’t mean there isn’t anything going on within them though. Our old friend Greece is making some headlines due to the reeling in of Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis. more…

EUR/JPY: Everything is Awesome

Neal Gilbert

The last half of the North American trading session was pretty much a reflection of the first as equities pretty much ground lower throughout and the USD kept clawing back some gains as well. The EUR was trying to gain back some respectability on positive sentiment figures out of Germany to start the day, but appears to be losing some momentum as we transition over to the Asian desks. If commodities or equities have an eye toward rallying moving forward, the Australian CPI release this evening will have to step up to the plate, otherwise a bigger drop may be in order. more…

AUDUSD: In Which Dollar Do You Believe?

Neal Gilbert

The second half of North American trade was very similar to the first half in that the USD continued to take a beating at the hands of the rest of the developed world’s currencies. Major currency pairs were all making notable highs against the USD at least once during the day as EUR/USD rose up to 1.07, NZD/USD took out 0.76, GBP/USD burst through 1.48, and USD/CAD went on a rampage by falling over 250 pips and breaking out of its long drawn out range. Even the much beat up upon AUD/USD made a nearly 100 pip run up to 0.77 before retreating slightly as we careen toward the end of the trading day. more…

EURGBP: Double Topped and Dropping

Neal Gilbert

The second half of North American trade was not as kind to equity traders as the first half as green figures turned to red soon after lunchtime and stayed there until close. The losses weren’t extreme though with only a 0.45% drop for both Dow and S&P. Commodities were also taking a moderate trip lower while King Dollar once again reasserted his dominance across a variety of currencies. Fears are beginning to heat up again for the euro though as the European Central Bank has a monetary policy decision this week, and Greece can’t seem to stay out of the headlines. The Greek charade this time around is that an anonymous Greek official essentially warned that a default was looming to the Financial Times, and that they have come “to the end of the road.” more…

USDJPY: How Much More Upside Is There?

Neal Gilbert

The story of the day in North American markets was the renewed domination of the US Dollar which rallied against all the other major currencies today as a variety of factors helped the world’s reserve currency dominate. From strong employment figures in Initial Jobless Claims which reached a near 15 year low to US bond auctions that chipped in as well, the USD was on a roll. Even US equity markets joined in on the fun as a relatively subdued early session caught the rally bug in late trade to close in the green on the day.

With all of the USD love being bandied about, it would be hard to find an excuse to go against it. However, we all know that neither rallies nor swoons last forever, and they inevitably more…