All posts by Nenad Kerkez

USD/JPY Descending Trendline Marks The Downtrend

Nenad Kerkez

The USD/JPY has been dropping, making a descending zig-zag pattern which marks the downtrend. The POC zone 112.40-62 (D H4, Trend line, ATR pivot, EMA89) could reject the price towards 111.70 and if the 111.65 breaks to the downside 111.40 and 111.00 should be next. If we don’t see a retracement towards the POC, pay attention to 111.65 and possible breakout below. However if the price breaks above 112.70 we might see a retest of 113.00-113.15 zone.
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USD/CAD Further Bearish Pressure Is Expected

Nenad Kerkez

Following reports from OPEC that supply shall exceed demand in the oncoming year or so, we have a consolidating Crude Oil price around USD44-45/bbl. BoC have increased their rate overnight following signs of inflation. Given this, the USD/CAD could be further sold on on rallies. My previous analysis showed a drop in the pair and I expect this to continue. At this point the pair is just above W H5, and above D L3. According to my CAMMACD method, we could see another drop below D L3. The drop could happen with or without retracement. If we see a retracement, pay attention to POC 1.2790-1.2810 (50.0, W L4, D H3, ATR pivot) where the price could reject. A move below 1.2675 suggests bearish continuation towards 1.2606 all the way down to 1.2485. more…

USD/CAD Follows The EMA89 Slope

Nenad Kerkez

If you had signed up for my Live Trading Webinar that is exclusive with Admiral Markets, you could’ve seen how the USD/CAD rejected perfectly from 2 POC zones where both market orders were triggered. The pair is still going down and in the case of any spike to the upside pay attention again to POC 1.2990-1.3005 (D H4, ATR pivot, EMA89) and eventually POC2 1.3035-50 (D H5, W H3, descending trend line, ATR high) where price could reject again. At this point the price is below W H3 and D H3, which signifies a strong downtrend. Continuation below yesterday’s low (1.2912) aims for 1.2895 and 1.2869. Below it is a void zone, where we could see hardly any support all the way down to 1.2780. more…

USD/JPY Zig-Zag Uptrend But Watch For D H4 Resistance

Nenad Kerkez

The USD/JPY has been moving in a zig-zag pattern that indicates uptrend but at this point its close to ATR top/D H4 resistance. We can also see a bearish divergence so we might expect some pullback. The POC zone is 112.00-15 (38.2, D L4, EMA89, ATR pivot). If the price gets there we might see a bounce towards D H5 112.90. However if the price gets to ATR top/ D H5 we might see a rejection towards 112.20-00 again. So watch for both zones in terms of trading as the price might reject from both POC and D H5/ ATR top confluence. more…

GBP/NZD Close To The Top Of The Equidistant Channel

Nenad Kerkez

The GBP/NZD has formed a bearish equidistant channel, but recent news gave the push in bullish momentum and the price might reverse. The zone to watch is 0.7560-80 (Channel top, ATR high, EMA89, D H4). Traders should watch for any reversal or continuation patterns within the POC zones. A bullish continuation pattern within the zone might push the price further towards the D H5 at 0.7653 while a bearish reversal pattern could drop the price towards D H3 and L3 – 0.7490 and 0.7370. The GBP/NZD is a very volatile pair and because the price is already at its extremes we might see a short term rejection from the POC soon and that could provide some short term trading opportunities. more…

AUD/USD Slow Zig-Zag Towards 0.7580

Nenad Kerkez

As we could see on yesterday’s Live Trading webinar, straight after our live trading session, the AUD/USD has rejected and made pips in the bearish direction. That was a counter trade opportunity we had, but today the AUD/USD might proceed with the trend. The POC zone is 0.7510-20 (D L4, ATR pivot, bullish order block, EMA89) and if we see a retracement, the pair might reject from the POC zone targeting H3 and H4 camarilla pivots. 1 hour candle close above 1.7568 might target 1.7586 and further 0.7617 on a stronger momentum push. Have in mind that the ATR (range) of the pair is small, only 57 pips so 0.7580 zone is looking more realistic should the bullish momentum prevail. more…

USD/JPY Bearish X-Cross Within 111.20 Zone

Nenad Kerkez

The USD/JPY has been dropping lately, but it has been more of a slow grind than momentum surge. During this slow grind, the price has established a POC zone within 111.15-30 (D H4, 38.2, inner trend line, EMA89, ATR Pivot). X-Cross ™ represents the cross of a trendline with an important pivot point or fib level. In this example we have both fib level and a camarilla pivot, so my assumption is that the X cross is strong. Rejections should aim for 110.65. Break of 110.65 aims for 110.36 and 110.17. more…

AUD/USD Bullish Wicks Mark New Wave Of Buyers

Nenad Kerkez

The AUD has been rebounding of late, with stronger Employment numbers for the month and a reduction in the Unemployment Rate to 5.7% as it approaches full employment. Interestingly, the MI Inflation target is 4% for the next 12 months, which may signal rate hikes in the near future. USD weakness continues, and the USD Index looks destined a bit lower, with lower manufacturing numbers, but with all other indicators relatively stable, the concerns lie with whether Trump can now deliver on his Tax cut promises for the next boost to the US economy. more…

USD/CAD Contracting Triangle In Uptrend

Nenad Kerkez

The USD/CAD has formed a contracting triangle in the uptrend, signalling for a potential retracement. At this point traders should pay attention to two possible breakout points. A breakout to the upside could happen at the break of 1.3742 level (D H3 and Upper triangle trend line) while a breakout to the downside could happen if 1.3695 breaks (D L3 and Lower triangle trend line). The point where trend lines cross camarilla pivot point is called an X Cross. Target for the upside breakout is 1.3800 while the target for the downside breakout is 1.3635. more…

EUR/GBP Rounding Bottom Uptrend Continuation

Nenad Kerkez

The EUR/GBP has formed a rounding bottom shaped pattern at the support and is rejecting from W H3 camarilla pivot. 0.8435-50 is POC zone (D L3, ATR pivot, EMA 89, 50.0, trend line) and rejection from POC could target 0.8510. Have in mind that if target is reached, the pair could possibly spike to 0.8550 during next few days. This bullish scenario is negated if the pair drops and stays below 0.8400, rounded bottom low. more…