All posts by Nenad Kerkez

USDJPY PRE FOMC Outlook

Nenad Kerkez

Today’s focus is on FOMC meeting and that is the reason why the market has been calm all day long. We should expect FED to focus on China slowdown, market volatility and weak US data. At the present FED could probably take a pass on policy and mention “patience”. There are 2 possible scenarios: Hawkish scenario would be mentioning another rate hike soon (March) and if the FED skips any mention of raising rate hikes and takes on weak US data in the statement addressing both global and GDP slowdown, the statement will be considered dovish. The statement will come in the written form at 19:00 GMT. more…

GBPUSD Is Short On Rallies

Nenad Kerkez

After yesterday’s BOE Governor mr.Mark Carney comments where he stated there was no timetable for raising interest rates, GBPUSD fell heavily from POC as suggested on last Live webinar and in the FXstreet article where I suggested both 1.4225 and 1.4050 levels. The first rejection off 1.4225 made more than 100 pips to the upside but Carney’s comments made a huge drop in the exchange rate. In the midst of Chinese growth hitting 25y low we have concluded that BOE is unlikely to raise interest rates soon more…

AUDJPY Dropping Towards New Lows

Nenad Kerkez

As I have stated many times in the articles and analysis the AUDJPY is heavily correlated with Chinese data. Bad Chinese data and equities drop. AJ drops too. It is called a positive correlation. Last night Caixin PMI printed out 50.2 vs 52.3 estimate. If you want to trade the pair which is correlated to Chinese markets its the AUDJPY. more…

AUDJPY Strong Confluence At X Cross

Nenad Kerkez

The AUDJPY is heavily correlated to ASX200 and Nikkei indices and if you trade this pair pay attention to both indices as well as SP500 as it moves along with ASX200. In my opinion, best correlation with JPY pairs is USDJPY vs Nikkei and AUDJPY vs ASX200. I also advise that you should use correlation table all the time, especially if you trade multiple pairs. more…

EURUSD PRE FOMC Bi-Directional Channel

Nenad Kerkez

As I have already explained in the article and my last EURUSD analysis the EURUSD has been bi-directional without any clear trend except some range bound trading and selling on rallies. Last Session Recap webinar provided a 100 pip+ rejection as we saw the perfect drop from 1.1050 zone. Today we will witness a historical FOMC meeting where we could see the first change of rates since the end of 2008 and the first increase in official rates since mid 2006. more…

EURUSD Has Formed A Bearish Wedge

Nenad Kerkez

The EURUSD has bounced from 1.0600 support and it is slowly grinding to the upside. A slow grind reflects its bearish trend as it is a fine, gradual retracement rather than a wild ,strong rally. The ECB policy board is scheduled for December 3 and we will see if ECB will take additional easing steps (further cut in the deposit rate). As i have been showing on my Session Recap webinars, the EURUSD is bearish and safest trades are short trades on rallies. more…

EURUSD Proceeding With Downtrend

Nenad Kerkez

As I have shown in my previous EURUSD analysis  the EURUSD has clearly rejected from POCs and proceeded in trend direction. Overall, the first target zone has almost been met – 1.0620 and it happened after the break of 1.0670 as I have suggested. We need to think about 2 potential scenarios. The first is CONTINUATION point of view and the second is POSITIONING. more…