All posts by Nenad Kerkez

AUDJPY Bearish Divergence Could Bring Risk-Off Sentiment To The Fore

Nenad Kerkez

Commodities and Equities prices have rebounded from their interim lows of Early February 2016, and it has resulted with strong gains across these markets. Clearly this has been a risk-on scenario, causing AJ to be bullish during this period as well. Equities are reaching key resistance levels and are showing signs of market fatigue by the End of this Quarter and Month. This shows that risk-off sentiment may come back to the fore, meaning it could be a nice setup for a short position on AJ. more…

EURAUD Strong Downtrend Continues

Nenad Kerkez

This week we have the ECB meeting, with analysts predicting further forms of QE by reducing deposit rates, which should weaken the EUR. Of recent, we’ve seen Commodities prices rebound, in particular Iron Ore, Copper, Gold, OIl (and coupled pricing on LNG), all key exports of Australia, causing AUD to appreciate. On this basis, should commodities prices continue to recover and ECB introduces further QE then EURAUD will proceed below our daily target that is 1.4650 and might extend to 1.4350 that is clearly seen on daily chart with a strong T-89 pattern rejection. more…

AUDJPY Bearish Equities Support The Drop

Nenad Kerkez

I have explained it many times during webinars- AUDJPY is a great pair to trade in correlation with equities. Today we have a risk off sentiment as 29 of the 30 Germany DAX companies are down in price. That is reflecting on Yen pairs. Basically, when its risk-on environment, commodities prices tend to increase, and traders go long AUD due to that factor. When commodities prices go up, stock Markets go up and there is demand for positive swaps on AUD pairs currently as opposed to JPY. When its a risk-off environment, usually the opposite occurs, and as a result, the JPY appreciates as foreign flows from Japan are repatriated back to their local currency. more…

AUDUSD Triple Top Holding The Price

Nenad Kerkez

The light volume and lower volatility made AUDUSD possible trade bidirectionally. The initial rebound from 0.7050 made 30 pips initially as suggested on previous Session Recap webinar followed by a decline caused by investors dumping assets. Today’s FED’s chief Yellen testimony could be volatile and that is why I recommend caution. The testimony has been scheduled for 15:00 GMT. As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, she has more influence over the nation’s currency value than any other person so pay attention to subtle clues about future monetary policy. more…

USDJPY PRE FOMC Outlook

Nenad Kerkez

Today’s focus is on FOMC meeting and that is the reason why the market has been calm all day long. We should expect FED to focus on China slowdown, market volatility and weak US data. At the present FED could probably take a pass on policy and mention “patience”. There are 2 possible scenarios: Hawkish scenario would be mentioning another rate hike soon (March) and if the FED skips any mention of raising rate hikes and takes on weak US data in the statement addressing both global and GDP slowdown, the statement will be considered dovish. The statement will come in the written form at 19:00 GMT. more…