All posts by Nenad Kerkez

USD/CAD Bullish SHS Pattern Shaping Up

Nenad Kerkez

As we approach the President elect Trump’s inauguration date later this month, the USD data has been very sound to begin the year. Whilst Commodities prices in general have strengthened since Trump indicated he wanted to rebuild America’s infrastructure, the price of Oil has dipped in recent days. Nonetheless, the CAD has been performing pretty well, and on the Daily TF, we seem to have had a double top on this pair at 1.36, that pulls the price down. As you can see on weekly chart the price is retracing towards POC zone where it could shape Inverted Head and Shoulders (Bullish SHS) pattern. more…

GBP/JPY More Downside Expected

Nenad Kerkez

When other pairs are moving in a low ATR, the GBP/JPY aka “The Dragon” simply doesn’t care about thin holiday liquidity. ATR of last seven days is 115 and that leaves traders with a more room to trade it. Technically we have 2 POC zones. The first POC zone 143.35-143.50 (38.2, bearish order block, ATR level) could reject the price should the pair retrace. Slightly above it is POC2 143.60-85 (H3,50.0, DPP, ATR projected top). Traders should pay attention to possible ejections from the zones towards 143.00 and 142.40. more…

EUR/USD Bears Need A Close Below 1.0470

Nenad Kerkez

The EUR/USD spiked from the zone I showed on Session Recap providing pips to traders who traded longs in a form of counter trend trading. Generally speaking, the trend is still bearish and to me it is clear that a weekly close below 1.0470 is needed for further downside. Technically we see 2 most prominent trend lines on H4 chart that mark the downtrend. POC zone is spotted around 1.0410-20 on 4h charts. Weekly close below 1.0470 (slight below weekly camarilla pivot) should open the door for 1.0300 and 1.0280. 1.0470 is a strong order block and historical s/r level. Weekly pivot is making an X cross ™ with a trend line so it just adds to its strength. 4h close below 1.0280 would expose 1.0200. more…

PRE FOMC Analysis: GBP/USD Is Close To Support

Nenad Kerkez

The main event this month is FOMC Economic projection with statement and Federal Funds Rate decision. Market expects a hike of 0.25 % (from 0.50% to 0.75%). Any deviation from expected result will move the USD heavily. Today’s GBP data was better than expected with Average Earnings Index coming +0.2 % better than expected while the change in the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits during the previous month dropped to 2.4k. more…

EUR/USD Is Waiting For ECB Meeting Today

Nenad Kerkez

Today the ECB meets in an important meeting that may decide whether the ECB QE programme continues at the current rate of EU80Bn in Bonds per month and the duration of the overall programme. Some analysts are suggesting the programme rate may reduce but the overall duration remains the same or longer, hence more assets on the ECB Balance Sheet over the longer term. How the market reacts to this, is much to be seen. FOMC is scheduled for next week, and many analysts tip a rate hike in the US, along with Bond markets pricing at least a 25bps rise, however, I am more of the view that they will wait until Trump’s inauguration as President before they hike, so they might be waiting until the February 2017 meeting. more…

EUR/GBP Potential Upside Move

Nenad Kerkez

The EUR/GBP is has a potential to break the range and proceed to the upside if we see a rejection off POC. POC comes within 0.8510-15 zone ( V shape, DPP, EMA89, trend line). If we don’t see a retracement to POC , pay attention to H1 close above descending trend line. The pair could reach 0.8550, 0.8575 and 0.8615 if there is a H1 momentum or 4h close above 0.8575. Additionally the pair rejected slightly above the bullish order block that is located just above L3 support. This further supports a bullish bias for this pair. more…

EUR/USD 1.0660 Zone Keeps Rejecting The Price

Nenad Kerkez

With all eyes firmly on the OPEC meeting this week to see if they cut oil production and raise the Oil price, other key items this week affecting USD is Advance GDP, Consumer Confidence, NFP and Unemployment rate. The EU reports its inflation numbers this week, a key concern for the ECB and Draghi also speaks again. EUR weakness may gain some traction as Italy holds its Constitutional Referendum, a No Vote win could lead to Renzi resigning, political instability in Italy and snap elections sooner rather than later. Bad debts held by Italian Banks stand near EU360Bn, and a No Vote along with political instability may lead to further pressures on Italian Banks ability to remain solvent and ensure the EU Banking systems is sound. more…

AUD/JPY Making Strong Bullish Swings Above Order Blocks

Nenad Kerkez

Base metals are up – Copper, Iron Ore. LNG (Oil) is also stable and going up while Australian Treasury Yields have increased the past month. We can see an overall JPY weakness across the board. Technically, we have 2 POC zones 83.10-25 is the retracement trend line break and X cross ™ so if the price pullbacks to the zone it might spike up. The price is above H3 camarilla resistance so it might also reject from H3. In the case of deeper retracement we should pay attention to 82.65-75 POC2 (trend line, DPP, L3, bullish order block). The 4h close or 1h momentum above 83.40 should aim for 84.40 – final target for this swing. more…

USD/CAD Up As Oil Price Retreats

Nenad Kerkez

Following a report that European Oil storages have hit their limits and that Oil tankers were being hired in Europe to store excess Oil, we saw the Oil price retreat over the past week, causing CAD weakness. Trump’s historic Presidential win has only seen USD strength as his fiscal policy plans are likely to lead to more US Debt and Inflationary expectations have risen, meaning a rate hike is a greater chance. more…

EUR/USD High Momentum Candles On 4h Time Frame

Nenad Kerkez

The Trump’s victory on election reflected on the EUR/USD pair both during the elections and after London open. The pair spiked exactly as predicted in the latest EUR/USD analysis. As expected, the USD plummeted at the pinnacle of the vote count for the US Presidency, with the USD Index touching 95.83. We saw a movement of funds to safe haven currencies like the JPY and CHF, and surprisingly the EUR strengthened too. We saw the EURUSD hit 1.13 during those moments of the vote count, and yet we don’t know the overall impact on global trade as a result of Trump’s trade protectionism plans. We still need to wait and see if the funds leave the USD again. more…