All posts by Nenad Kerkez

GBPUSD Weekly L3 And D H4 Confluence In Downtrend

Nenad Kerkez

The GBP/USD broke below 1.2020, the weekly L3 level, thus turning the support into a resistance. After a short breakout that I showed on live trading webinar yesterday, the pair started to retrace towards the POC zone 1.2830-50 (Order block, ATR high, trend line, D H5, EMA89). The price could reject there towards the 1.2880 and 1.2770. Only a break below 1.2768 could spur additional weakness in the pair towards 1.2740 zone. The market is calm at this point but the increased volatility is expected during the 2017 Economic Symposium, “Fostering a Dynamic Global Economy”, which will take place Aug. 24-26, 2017 at Jackson Hole, WY. more…

GBP/JPY MACD Divergence At Monthly Support

Nenad Kerkez

The GBP/JPY has made a temporary bottom at 141.25 and we can see MACD divergence that could push the price to the upside.141.25-50 is the zone where price might spike towards the 142.60-85 where new sellers might be waiting. Only a clear 4h close or h1 momentum above 142.90 should target 143.40. Bearish continuation happens only below 140.90, but at this point, the GBP/JPY is supported by Monthly and Weekly supports and bullish MACD divergence. more…

EUR/USD Two Breakout Points Outside The Equidistant Channel

Nenad Kerkez

The EUR/USD has perfectly rejected from both POCs after the setup and analysis shown on Weekly Recap and at this time it is very clear that the equidistant channel is trapping the price keeping the range bound market still in play. After a fake-out that happened yesterday 1.1720-1.1690 (which was still good to trade as a breakout trade, and what I showed during the Live Trading webinar) we can see two POC zones within the equidistant channel that might push or tank the price. If the price spikes above 1.1778 (EMA89, D H3, channel high) the target is 1.1798 and 1.1825. Above 1.1832 we should see a continuation towards more…

USD/JPY Descending Trendline Marks The Downtrend

Nenad Kerkez

The USD/JPY has been dropping, making a descending zig-zag pattern which marks the downtrend. The POC zone 112.40-62 (D H4, Trend line, ATR pivot, EMA89) could reject the price towards 111.70 and if the 111.65 breaks to the downside 111.40 and 111.00 should be next. If we don’t see a retracement towards the POC, pay attention to 111.65 and possible breakout below. However if the price breaks above 112.70 we might see a retest of 113.00-113.15 zone.
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USD/CAD Further Bearish Pressure Is Expected

Nenad Kerkez

Following reports from OPEC that supply shall exceed demand in the oncoming year or so, we have a consolidating Crude Oil price around USD44-45/bbl. BoC have increased their rate overnight following signs of inflation. Given this, the USD/CAD could be further sold on on rallies. My previous analysis showed a drop in the pair and I expect this to continue. At this point the pair is just above W H5, and above D L3. According to my CAMMACD method, we could see another drop below D L3. The drop could happen with or without retracement. If we see a retracement, pay attention to POC 1.2790-1.2810 (50.0, W L4, D H3, ATR pivot) where the price could reject. A move below 1.2675 suggests bearish continuation towards 1.2606 all the way down to 1.2485. more…

USD/CAD Follows The EMA89 Slope

Nenad Kerkez

If you had signed up for my Live Trading Webinar that is exclusive with Admiral Markets, you could’ve seen how the USD/CAD rejected perfectly from 2 POC zones where both market orders were triggered. The pair is still going down and in the case of any spike to the upside pay attention again to POC 1.2990-1.3005 (D H4, ATR pivot, EMA89) and eventually POC2 1.3035-50 (D H5, W H3, descending trend line, ATR high) where price could reject again. At this point the price is below W H3 and D H3, which signifies a strong downtrend. Continuation below yesterday’s low (1.2912) aims for 1.2895 and 1.2869. Below it is a void zone, where we could see hardly any support all the way down to 1.2780. more…

USD/JPY Zig-Zag Uptrend But Watch For D H4 Resistance

Nenad Kerkez

The USD/JPY has been moving in a zig-zag pattern that indicates uptrend but at this point its close to ATR top/D H4 resistance. We can also see a bearish divergence so we might expect some pullback. The POC zone is 112.00-15 (38.2, D L4, EMA89, ATR pivot). If the price gets there we might see a bounce towards D H5 112.90. However if the price gets to ATR top/ D H5 we might see a rejection towards 112.20-00 again. So watch for both zones in terms of trading as the price might reject from both POC and D H5/ ATR top confluence. more…

GBP/NZD Close To The Top Of The Equidistant Channel

Nenad Kerkez

The GBP/NZD has formed a bearish equidistant channel, but recent news gave the push in bullish momentum and the price might reverse. The zone to watch is 0.7560-80 (Channel top, ATR high, EMA89, D H4). Traders should watch for any reversal or continuation patterns within the POC zones. A bullish continuation pattern within the zone might push the price further towards the D H5 at 0.7653 while a bearish reversal pattern could drop the price towards D H3 and L3 – 0.7490 and 0.7370. The GBP/NZD is a very volatile pair and because the price is already at its extremes we might see a short term rejection from the POC soon and that could provide some short term trading opportunities. more…

AUD/USD Slow Zig-Zag Towards 0.7580

Nenad Kerkez

As we could see on yesterday’s Live Trading webinar, straight after our live trading session, the AUD/USD has rejected and made pips in the bearish direction. That was a counter trade opportunity we had, but today the AUD/USD might proceed with the trend. The POC zone is 0.7510-20 (D L4, ATR pivot, bullish order block, EMA89) and if we see a retracement, the pair might reject from the POC zone targeting H3 and H4 camarilla pivots. 1 hour candle close above 1.7568 might target 1.7586 and further 0.7617 on a stronger momentum push. Have in mind that the ATR (range) of the pair is small, only 57 pips so 0.7580 zone is looking more realistic should the bullish momentum prevail. more…