All posts by Nenad Kerkez

USD/CAD Make It Or Break It

Nenad Kerkez

The USD/CAD has dropped from important historical resistance and it was shown live on a previous Session Recap webinar. Currently the price is at important support and it will be either make it or break it for the pair. 1.2980-95 is POC zone (L3, EMA89, 61.8, trend line) and it making an X Cross with ascending intra week trend line (blue). If we see a rejection from POC and 4h close above 1.3010, the targets will be 1.3030, 1.3060 and 1.3100. However if the price drops below 1.2975 it should target 1.2946, 1.2920 and 1.2880. Pay attention to price flow and eventual bounce or break below POC zone. more…

EUR/JPY Consolidating Within Bullish Pennant

Nenad Kerkez

The EUR/JPY has been consolidating in the bullish pennant for last couple of days. This consolidation is showing a battle between bulls and bears for the next breakout. For trading purpose we have 2 possible scenarios. Twofold scenario is possible due to general downtrend and bullish pennant at L3 support. As the price is generally bearish, we might see a drop from POC zone 117.97-118.20 (H3, DPP, 61.8,EMA89,the top of the pennant) towards 117.50, 117.00 and 116.45. However if we see an upward breakout above 118.25 the price could reach 118.64 and 119.05-20 zone. Watch the correlation table and equities. SP500 will move in correlation with EUR/JPY during NY session. more…

EUR/USD: Potential 1.1312 After FOMC Today

Nenad Kerkez

It is very possible that Yellen may continue with her hawkish tones at the upcoming FOMC meeting. Nevertheless, as I stated in earlier updates, all eyes will be on the UK referendum this month (23 June 2016) as to whether the UK will remain in the EU. The uncertainty of a Brexit raises many uncertainties around the UK economy and the future of the EU. I do not expect the US Fed to raise rates ahead of the UK referendum. Should the UK decide to remain in the EU, then it is very possible, that the US Fed may raise rates in the July meeting. more…

AUD/JPY T-89 Pattern Suggesting A Possible Bounce

Nenad Kerkez

The AUD/JPY pair spiked after a V shaped reversal at the bottom spiking up to 80.30, slightly below H3 camarilla pivot. Now moment price action is showing a completed T-89 pattern right off L4 support where we can see a confluence zone (L4, 38.2, T-89). Since T-89 has been completed we might see a bounce off 79.70 too towards 80.40 and 80.80. Only if the price breaks 80.80 it will make an ascending scallop towards 81.30. Ideally the price should stay above L4 in order for the price to remain bullish. more…

USDCHF Triple Bar Rejection At Resistance

Nenad Kerkez

The USD/CHF is bound in a ranging market just as EUR/USD. As we could see in this article, the EUR/USD is meant to go up (as it is going) and that normally means USD/CHF down due to a negative high correlation.

Technically we can spot a triple pin bar rejection off the H3 resistance and it looks like a failed inverted head and shoulders. Due to a range that USD/CHF is currently in we might see a good r:r if the pair proceeds down. 0.9940-50 is the zone where we could see a rejection and as long as the pair is below 0.9975 targets are 0.9900 and 0.9870. Additionally traders should pay attention to ADP today.

USDCHF Hourly Chart

USDCHF Hourly Chart

Source: admiralmarkets.com

AUDJPY Low Volatility Zone Keeping The Pair Below Resistance

Nenad Kerkez

Equities is ranging, and most indices are on strong support, if they drop again then JPY pairs could drop a lot (more JPY strength). SP500 below 2040 is very bearish and DAX below 9800 is very bearish too. Additionally – RBA is signalling more rate cuts. Once this happens money will go back into JPY and we will see a stronger JPY again. Also it is very important to keep an eye for FOMC meeting today. more…

USDJPY Two Crows Keep The Pair In Range

Nenad Kerkez

Today Federal Reserve Chair Jane Yellen and other FOMC members could give us cues about potential rate hike in June. Market doesn’t expect changes in Federal Funds Rate ( 0.50 % vs 0.50 %) decision today so we should focus on the statement itself as it is focused on the future. FOMC members always vote on where to set the target rate. All the individual votes are published in the FOMC statement afterwards. more…

GBPUSD Bullish Flag Suggests Further Upside

Nenad Kerkez

The GBPUSD has washed off Brexit talks and it is showing an upward momentum on intraday time frames. After better than expected Claimant Count change (Change in the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits during the previous month) the pair is showing now moment buyers off 1.4345-60 withing a bull flag. If we add the distance of the flag pole to the possible breakout point we can see that the pair might be targeting 1.4477 and only H4 close or H1 momentum above 1.4477 will target 1.4541. more…