All posts by Nenad Kerkez

AUDJPY Bearish Equities Support The Drop

Nenad Kerkez

I have explained it many times during webinars- AUDJPY is a great pair to trade in correlation with equities. Today we have a risk off sentiment as 29 of the 30 Germany DAX companies are down in price. That is reflecting on Yen pairs. Basically, when its risk-on environment, commodities prices tend to increase, and traders go long AUD due to that factor. When commodities prices go up, stock Markets go up and there is demand for positive swaps on AUD pairs currently as opposed to JPY. When its a risk-off environment, usually the opposite occurs, and as a result, the JPY appreciates as foreign flows from Japan are repatriated back to their local currency. more…

AUDUSD Triple Top Holding The Price

Nenad Kerkez

The light volume and lower volatility made AUDUSD possible trade bidirectionally. The initial rebound from 0.7050 made 30 pips initially as suggested on previous Session Recap webinar followed by a decline caused by investors dumping assets. Today’s FED’s chief Yellen testimony could be volatile and that is why I recommend caution. The testimony has been scheduled for 15:00 GMT. As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, she has more influence over the nation’s currency value than any other person so pay attention to subtle clues about future monetary policy. more…

USDJPY PRE FOMC Outlook

Nenad Kerkez

Today’s focus is on FOMC meeting and that is the reason why the market has been calm all day long. We should expect FED to focus on China slowdown, market volatility and weak US data. At the present FED could probably take a pass on policy and mention “patience”. There are 2 possible scenarios: Hawkish scenario would be mentioning another rate hike soon (March) and if the FED skips any mention of raising rate hikes and takes on weak US data in the statement addressing both global and GDP slowdown, the statement will be considered dovish. The statement will come in the written form at 19:00 GMT. more…

GBPUSD Is Short On Rallies

Nenad Kerkez

After yesterday’s BOE Governor mr.Mark Carney comments where he stated there was no timetable for raising interest rates, GBPUSD fell heavily from POC as suggested on last Live webinar and in the FXstreet article where I suggested both 1.4225 and 1.4050 levels. The first rejection off 1.4225 made more than 100 pips to the upside but Carney’s comments made a huge drop in the exchange rate. In the midst of Chinese growth hitting 25y low we have concluded that BOE is unlikely to raise interest rates soon more…

AUDJPY Dropping Towards New Lows

Nenad Kerkez

As I have stated many times in the articles and analysis the AUDJPY is heavily correlated with Chinese data. Bad Chinese data and equities drop. AJ drops too. It is called a positive correlation. Last night Caixin PMI printed out 50.2 vs 52.3 estimate. If you want to trade the pair which is correlated to Chinese markets its the AUDJPY. more…

AUDJPY Strong Confluence At X Cross

Nenad Kerkez

The AUDJPY is heavily correlated to ASX200 and Nikkei indices and if you trade this pair pay attention to both indices as well as SP500 as it moves along with ASX200. In my opinion, best correlation with JPY pairs is USDJPY vs Nikkei and AUDJPY vs ASX200. I also advise that you should use correlation table all the time, especially if you trade multiple pairs. more…