All posts by Ville Vainio

Honey, I Shrunk The Euro

Ville Vainio

EUR/USD had a massive decline at the end of the week and the bears seems to be in charge here. The decline went trough the support area around 1.1145 and kept going. This decline is in line with the wave count which has been expecting powerful decline for some time now. Although this decline is still a 3 wave structure, the larger wave structure is supporting the view that we have started the next phase in dollar strength. more…

EUR/GBP Is On A Bullish Path

Ville Vainio

EUR/GBP is on a bullish path and is nearing new mid term highs soon. After we have concluded this large corrective phase, larger reversal is expected. My preferred wave count is looking for a small degree 5 wave structure to be completed before larger reversal can occur. We have been on a corrective phase since march of 2015 and are nearing the end of this large structure. more…

EURUSD: Outlook Remains Unchanged

Ville Vainio

Lower than expected NFP figures did not change the outlook for EURUSD. After a very complex sideways correction EURUSD is continuing the larger downwards trend. This next move down should be 3rd of a 3rd wave and the most powerful in the 5 wave sequence. I am expecting a similar and more powerful decline that we got from the high at 1.1713 to low of 1.10865. more…

EURUSD Rally Over?

Ville Vainio

Since the upwards correction has extended, i have made a small revision on my charts. The Fibonacci expansion tool on the chart shows that EURUSD has almost advanced to 161,8% Fibonacci expansion level at 1.136. This is a measurement of the relationship between corrective wave A and C (wave C would be 1.618 times waves A) This is important wave relationship in Elliott wave theory and gives good target for the correction to end. more…

USDJPY Targets 116.6

Ville Vainio

USDJPY continued the decline after NFP on Friday. My preferred wave count is looking for a 3 wave structure and is looking at this decline as wave 2 correction on the way higher. Fibonacci expansion tool on the charts gives targets of 118.6 and 116.6 respectively. These levels are 100% and 161.8% relationships for wave C to wave A. more…

EURUSD Eyes New Lows

Ville Vainio

EURUSD has declined and closed below the critical level of 1.1213. This gives a stronger signal to the preferred wave count which proposes that the recent decline is the start of final larger wave down. The last wave of this massive decline should take EURUSD below the recent long term low of 1.046 and conclude the whole decline from 1.40 that started over a year ago. more…

EURUSD Corrective Wave Forming

Ville Vainio

EURUSD is forming a corrective minute wave (B). The last part of this large correction is half way done and should be 3 wave, A-B-C structure. The “thrust” measurement from the triangle is giving target of 1.1495 and Fibonacci expansion projection gives target about 1.1445 so those targets should give indication of the top for this minor wave Y. more…

EURUSD: Bullish Triangle About To Close

Ville Vainio

Up and down goes EURUSD and not giving a clear signal on the trend direction. Price action is looking corrective and EURUSD has not yet confirmed on the downside that the larger wave down has started. Friday’s NFP release sent EURUSD just over 100 pips down from the day’s high, which the market rapidly took back. The figures were slightly below expectations and in my opinion does not give much clarity on rate hike situation. more…