Category Archives: AUD/JPY

Video Analysis: AUDJPY, NIKKEI, OIL, USDCAD

Grega Horvat

USDCAD was trading bearish through May 2017 and through September. We can see that a five-wave impulse had unfolded on the daily time frame and later found a low at the 1.2058 level. From there a new bullish movement followed, which we labeled it as wave A, first wave of a three-wave recovery which means more gains is expected to occur after current wave B is finished, which can look for a base around 1.2600 and also complete a bullish H&S pattern. more…

AUD/JPY Bearish Zig Zag Pattern Aiming For 85.35 If 86.25 Holds

Nenad Kerkez

The AUD/JPY could reject from the POC zone 85.90-95 (50.0, W L5, EMA89, D H3) and as long as 85.18-25 holds we might see a drop towards 85.50 and 85.35. Only if we see a 4h or 1h momentum close below 85.35 the pair might target 85.05 and 84.56. Have in mind that the AUD/JPY is a bi slow moving pair so it might take some time to get to its final target. At this point the focus is on the POC zone more…

AUD/JPY Drops On Worse Than Expected CPI

Nenad Kerkez

The Australian CPI rose 1.8 percent for the year which was lower than 2 percent expectation. The data hurt the AUD and it made a direct drop to W L4 with an extension to 87.78. At this point shorting on rallies is the option. Short term scalps could come around 88.08 while positional short trades could come at the POC zone 88.25-40 (D L4/L5, W L3, Order block, EMA89, trend line,atr pivot, 50.0 Fib). more…

Expect AUDJPY To Extend Lower Towards 87.37

Daud Bhatti

AUDJPY Short Term Elliott Wave view suggests that the rally to 90.31 ended Intermediate wave (W). Intermediate wave (X) pullback remains in progress as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from 90.31, Minor wave W ended at 88.44 and Minor wave X ended at 89.68. Minor wave Y is unfolding also as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Minute wave ((w)) of Y ended at 88.23 and Minute wave ((x)) of Y is proposed complete at 88.89. Near term, while bounces stay below 9/25 peak at 89.69, expect pair to extend lower towards 87.37 – 87.8` area to complete more…

AUD/JPY Making Strong Bullish Swings Above Order Blocks

Nenad Kerkez

Base metals are up – Copper, Iron Ore. LNG (Oil) is also stable and going up while Australian Treasury Yields have increased the past month. We can see an overall JPY weakness across the board. Technically, we have 2 POC zones 83.10-25 is the retracement trend line break and X cross ™ so if the price pullbacks to the zone it might spike up. The price is above H3 camarilla resistance so it might also reject from H3. In the case of deeper retracement we should pay attention to 82.65-75 POC2 (trend line, DPP, L3, bullish order block). The 4h close or 1h momentum above 83.40 should aim for 84.40 – final target for this swing. more…

AUD/JPY T-89 Pattern Suggesting A Possible Bounce

Nenad Kerkez

The AUD/JPY pair spiked after a V shaped reversal at the bottom spiking up to 80.30, slightly below H3 camarilla pivot. Now moment price action is showing a completed T-89 pattern right off L4 support where we can see a confluence zone (L4, 38.2, T-89). Since T-89 has been completed we might see a bounce off 79.70 too towards 80.40 and 80.80. Only if the price breaks 80.80 it will make an ascending scallop towards 81.30. Ideally the price should stay above L4 in order for the price to remain bullish. more…

AUDJPY Low Volatility Zone Keeping The Pair Below Resistance

Nenad Kerkez

Equities is ranging, and most indices are on strong support, if they drop again then JPY pairs could drop a lot (more JPY strength). SP500 below 2040 is very bearish and DAX below 9800 is very bearish too. Additionally – RBA is signalling more rate cuts. Once this happens money will go back into JPY and we will see a stronger JPY again. Also it is very important to keep an eye for FOMC meeting today. more…

AUDJPY Bearish Divergence Could Bring Risk-Off Sentiment To The Fore

Nenad Kerkez

Commodities and Equities prices have rebounded from their interim lows of Early February 2016, and it has resulted with strong gains across these markets. Clearly this has been a risk-on scenario, causing AJ to be bullish during this period as well. Equities are reaching key resistance levels and are showing signs of market fatigue by the End of this Quarter and Month. This shows that risk-off sentiment may come back to the fore, meaning it could be a nice setup for a short position on AJ. more…

AUDJPY Bearish Equities Support The Drop

Nenad Kerkez

I have explained it many times during webinars- AUDJPY is a great pair to trade in correlation with equities. Today we have a risk off sentiment as 29 of the 30 Germany DAX companies are down in price. That is reflecting on Yen pairs. Basically, when its risk-on environment, commodities prices tend to increase, and traders go long AUD due to that factor. When commodities prices go up, stock Markets go up and there is demand for positive swaps on AUD pairs currently as opposed to JPY. When its a risk-off environment, usually the opposite occurs, and as a result, the JPY appreciates as foreign flows from Japan are repatriated back to their local currency. more…

AUDJPY Dropping Towards New Lows

Nenad Kerkez

As I have stated many times in the articles and analysis the AUDJPY is heavily correlated with Chinese data. Bad Chinese data and equities drop. AJ drops too. It is called a positive correlation. Last night Caixin PMI printed out 50.2 vs 52.3 estimate. If you want to trade the pair which is correlated to Chinese markets its the AUDJPY. more…