Category Archives: Crude Oil

Elliott Wave Analysis On EURUSD And Crude OIL

Gregor Horvat

EURUSD is at the lows, so we are now even more confident that pair is making an extended wave three down from 1.0925. We see blue wave three already making a fifth sub-wave to the downside and that is why we need to be aware of a new short-term recovery that can show up. We are talking about blue wave four that can be very interesting to join the downtrend from around 1.0770/90 while price at 1.0864 is not breached. more…

OPEC’S Decision Will Likely Boost Oil Prices Further In Short Term

Fawad Razaqzada

The OPEC surprised the market yesterday and actually managed to agree on a production cut, with details to follow in their November meeting. Up to 800,000 barrels of oil per day will potentially be removed from the oversupplied market which would lower the production target for the cartel to a range between 32.5 and 33.0 mb/d. Oil prices surged some 6% in the immediate aftermath of the news, though they have since eased off a tad as traders make a more sober assessment of the whole situation. more…

Crude OIL: Possible Turning Point Around 43/45

Gregor Horvat

Crude oil has turned sharply lower a few days back so it appears that five wave rally up from 35.19 is completed, thus a new three wave move down is underway. We are expecting a corrective decline, labeled as blue wave four that will ideally retrace back to 43-45 area, where we see 38.2% Fibonacci support, as well as length taken of wave two, where both can act as a turning point higher. more…

Crude Oil Rally Gaining Momentum

Fawad Razaqzada

Crude oil prices have been repeatedly hitting fresh highs for the year in recent days. Just a month or so ago, they were dropping to fresh multi-year lows almost on a daily basis. The sudden turnaround has been triggered by a number of factors. Like every other rally, it all started as the sellers started to exit their positions. Bullish speculators then slowly started to pile in and more and more sellers withdrew as key resistance levels broke. Sentiment turned on investor realisation that the significantly lower oil prices boosted demand, most notably in China, and at the same time caused severe difficulties for oil producers, to such an extent that more…

Crude Oil Surges, But Talk Of A Bottom Premature At This Stage

Fawad Razaqzada

The price of crude oil has managed to rally significantly in percentage terms since hitting a low sub $28 in mid-week. Since Brent hit a low of $27.10 and WTI $27.50 on Wednesday, the two major oil contracts were some 13-15 per cent better off at the time of this writing on Friday morning. In nominal terms, the gains have been about 4 dollars thus far – although noticeable, $4 merely represents a drop in the ocean compared to how much prices have fallen over the past year or so. This sort of a move is not uncommon in strong bearish trends and suggestions that a bottom has been reached may be a bit premature at this stage as after all the fundamental picture has not improved whatsoever. That being said, the rally back above the $30 handle is clearly a bullish outcome as far as the near-term outlook is concerned. more…

Crude: OPEC Unlikely To Cut Production Quota

Fawad Razaqzada

The official OPEC meeting is underway in Vienna and crude oil prices are trading in tight ranges as the market awaits a decision. A division within the cartel is clearly visible with Saudi Arabia and Gulf countries wanting to maintain production quota unchanged, while the rest, most notably Venezuela, favouring a reduction in order to shore up prices to help support their struggling economies. Saudi would have considered a cut if certain non-OPEC members like Russia also agreed to reduce their crude oil output. This is a bizarre request and unlikely to be agreed upon. Iran’s oil minister wants everyone to cut their production apart from his country. With so many members in disagreement, an eventual decision will undoubtedly not be unanimous. more…

Crude, Commodities Stabilise; Outlook Remains Bleak

Fawad Razaqzada

Commodity prices have been more stable since Wednesday. Gold is now up for the third consecutive day, copper has halted its decline and oil is trading sideways. While gold has been underpinned by a slightly weaker dollar due to growing expectations of a so-called dovish rate hike from the Fed, copper is getting a boost in part from zinc, which has rallied sharply after ten Chinese smelters said more…

Broken Channel Indicates More Bearish Movement For OIL

Gregor Horvat

Crude oil made only three waves up in September that we labeled it as a zigzag in wave 4. Notice that that wave 4 moved up into the area of a former wave four near 50.80 from where price turned down very sharply, through the lower support line of a corrective channel. This breakout confirms continuation lower, so we suspect that price is headed back to the lows of 2015. We see wave 5) of (C) that can be targeting even $30 in months ahead. more…