Category Archives: EUR/USD

Macron’S Triumph Removes Eurozone Political Risk

Daud Bhatti

Emmanuel Macron won the presidential election last Sunday, defeating Marine Le Pen, a far-right nationalist who wanted to take France out of the European Union. Markets had feared that Le Pen’s win could threaten the EU project, but Macron’s win has eliminated uncertainty regarding France’s membership of the Euro and removed the risk of near-term severe political shock to France and wider Europe. The Euro went above $1.10 briefly, but since then has pulled back. The upwards move was not dramatic than the first round of French elections as many traders have anticipated Macron’s victory and thus victory was already well priced in. more…

EUR/USD Range Has Formed Two POC Zones

Nenad Kerkez

After a steady uptrend on EUR/USD, we see that important trend line has been broken and the pair has been dropping consistently for 2 days. One of the reasons why EUR/USD is dropping is possibly profit taking which was enacted by hedge funds as French elections grow closer. Today POC zone for selling is 1.0775-90 (D H3, ATR Pivot, inner trend line, EMA89) while we might expect buyers within 1.0665-85 zone (Order block, D L5, W L5, 78.6). Any break of Upper POC range (1.0790) and Lower POC range (1.0665) should establish new intraweek trend. At this point we need to treat this as range play with 2 zones where EUR/USD might react. more…

EUR/USD Levels To Watch Prior To FED

Nenad Kerkez

The US Federal Reserve Bank (“the Fed”), has battled to ignite inflation since the GFC and up until now it has raised rates less frequently than the markets have expected, however, this approach may soon change. Today, the Fed is almost universally expected to raise its benchmark interest rates following strong NFP, full employment and an uptick in inflation. The forecast is that the FED will hike the rates by 0.25 % and the event will be volatile as the FED hike might have already been priced in. We need to watch important camarilla levels and POC zones. more…

EURUSD: Elliott Wave Sequence From February Peak

Daud Bhatti

EURUSD Elliott Wave Sequence from 2/2 peak doesn’t support the idea of 5 wave impulse or even a series of 1,2’s. Decline from 2/2/2017 high to 2/15/2017 low was a 7 swing sequence and the decline from 2/16/2017 to 2/22/2017 low was also a 7 swing decline. This means neither leg down from 2/2/2017 peak was in 5 waves. Even if we were to force the bias and view the two legs down from 2/2/2017 peak as a 5 wave move, still the decline from 2/2/2017 peak is not an impulse because more…

Elliott Wave Analysis: USD Index, EURUSD And USDJPY

Gregor Horvat

USD remains on a bearish foot for now, with USD Index still searching for end of a corrective set-back in wave 4) which may happen near 100.60 level this week. At the same time, EURUSD is pointing higher, up to 1.0730 based on our latest wave count which shows an ending diagonal in wave V of 4). If we are correct, then bulls should not exceed 1.0800! So as long that price is not breached we will look for evidences of a strong bearish turn. more…

EUR/USD Bears Need A Close Below 1.0470

Nenad Kerkez

The EUR/USD spiked from the zone I showed on Session Recap providing pips to traders who traded longs in a form of counter trend trading. Generally speaking, the trend is still bearish and to me it is clear that a weekly close below 1.0470 is needed for further downside. Technically we see 2 most prominent trend lines on H4 chart that mark the downtrend. POC zone is spotted around 1.0410-20 on 4h charts. Weekly close below 1.0470 (slight below weekly camarilla pivot) should open the door for 1.0300 and 1.0280. 1.0470 is a strong order block and historical s/r level. Weekly pivot is making an X cross ™ with a trend line so it just adds to its strength. 4h close below 1.0280 would expose 1.0200. more…

Big Sideways Correction On EURUSD Completed; More Weakness Is Here

Gregor Horvat

EURUSD is turning sharply lower from the 1.1300 level where pair have finally accomplished a big and very long sideways pattern that was located in wave IV. It was a triangle which is now completed because of a decisive break beneath the blue wave D swing at 1.0847 level three weeks ago. As such we are now even more confident that bears may gain more momentum and at the start of a new week, make a decisive breach below blue wave B. more…

EUR/USD Is Waiting For ECB Meeting Today

Nenad Kerkez

Today the ECB meets in an important meeting that may decide whether the ECB QE programme continues at the current rate of EU80Bn in Bonds per month and the duration of the overall programme. Some analysts are suggesting the programme rate may reduce but the overall duration remains the same or longer, hence more assets on the ECB Balance Sheet over the longer term. How the market reacts to this, is much to be seen. FOMC is scheduled for next week, and many analysts tip a rate hike in the US, along with Bond markets pricing at least a 25bps rise, however, I am more of the view that they will wait until Trump’s inauguration as President before they hike, so they might be waiting until the February 2017 meeting. more…