Category Archives: EUR/USD

Elliott Wave Analysis: USD Index, EURUSD And USDJPY

Gregor Horvat

USD remains on a bearish foot for now, with USD Index still searching for end of a corrective set-back in wave 4) which may happen near 100.60 level this week. At the same time, EURUSD is pointing higher, up to 1.0730 based on our latest wave count which shows an ending diagonal in wave V of 4). If we are correct, then bulls should not exceed 1.0800! So as long that price is not breached we will look for evidences of a strong bearish turn. more…

EUR/USD Bears Need A Close Below 1.0470

Nenad Kerkez

The EUR/USD spiked from the zone I showed on Session Recap providing pips to traders who traded longs in a form of counter trend trading. Generally speaking, the trend is still bearish and to me it is clear that a weekly close below 1.0470 is needed for further downside. Technically we see 2 most prominent trend lines on H4 chart that mark the downtrend. POC zone is spotted around 1.0410-20 on 4h charts. Weekly close below 1.0470 (slight below weekly camarilla pivot) should open the door for 1.0300 and 1.0280. 1.0470 is a strong order block and historical s/r level. Weekly pivot is making an X cross ™ with a trend line so it just adds to its strength. 4h close below 1.0280 would expose 1.0200. more…

Big Sideways Correction On EURUSD Completed; More Weakness Is Here

Gregor Horvat

EURUSD is turning sharply lower from the 1.1300 level where pair have finally accomplished a big and very long sideways pattern that was located in wave IV. It was a triangle which is now completed because of a decisive break beneath the blue wave D swing at 1.0847 level three weeks ago. As such we are now even more confident that bears may gain more momentum and at the start of a new week, make a decisive breach below blue wave B. more…

EUR/USD Is Waiting For ECB Meeting Today

Nenad Kerkez

Today the ECB meets in an important meeting that may decide whether the ECB QE programme continues at the current rate of EU80Bn in Bonds per month and the duration of the overall programme. Some analysts are suggesting the programme rate may reduce but the overall duration remains the same or longer, hence more assets on the ECB Balance Sheet over the longer term. How the market reacts to this, is much to be seen. FOMC is scheduled for next week, and many analysts tip a rate hike in the US, along with Bond markets pricing at least a 25bps rise, however, I am more of the view that they will wait until Trump’s inauguration as President before they hike, so they might be waiting until the February 2017 meeting. more…

EUR/USD 1.0660 Zone Keeps Rejecting The Price

Nenad Kerkez

With all eyes firmly on the OPEC meeting this week to see if they cut oil production and raise the Oil price, other key items this week affecting USD is Advance GDP, Consumer Confidence, NFP and Unemployment rate. The EU reports its inflation numbers this week, a key concern for the ECB and Draghi also speaks again. EUR weakness may gain some traction as Italy holds its Constitutional Referendum, a No Vote win could lead to Renzi resigning, political instability in Italy and snap elections sooner rather than later. Bad debts held by Italian Banks stand near EU360Bn, and a No Vote along with political instability may lead to further pressures on Italian Banks ability to remain solvent and ensure the EU Banking systems is sound. more…

Elliott Wave Analysis On EURUSD And Crude OIL

Gregor Horvat

EURUSD is at the lows, so we are now even more confident that pair is making an extended wave three down from 1.0925. We see blue wave three already making a fifth sub-wave to the downside and that is why we need to be aware of a new short-term recovery that can show up. We are talking about blue wave four that can be very interesting to join the downtrend from around 1.0770/90 while price at 1.0864 is not breached. more…

EUR/USD High Momentum Candles On 4h Time Frame

Nenad Kerkez

The Trump’s victory on election reflected on the EUR/USD pair both during the elections and after London open. The pair spiked exactly as predicted in the latest EUR/USD analysis. As expected, the USD plummeted at the pinnacle of the vote count for the US Presidency, with the USD Index touching 95.83. We saw a movement of funds to safe haven currencies like the JPY and CHF, and surprisingly the EUR strengthened too. We saw the EURUSD hit 1.13 during those moments of the vote count, and yet we don’t know the overall impact on global trade as a result of Trump’s trade protectionism plans. We still need to wait and see if the funds leave the USD again. more…

EUR/USD Is Waiting For USD Core Durable Order News

Nenad Kerkez

The EUR/USD is in a range mode waiting for Cored Durable Order data that is scheduled for 12:30 GMT. It represents the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods. If the result is better than expected USD should gain strength and it could be astraight drop from current levels. Bad result could see EUR/USD retracing towards POC within 1.1230-40 zone where we can see confluence of 61.8 and inner trend line. The zone might reject the price towards 1.1188 as the higher time frame trend is bearish. Only a 4h close below 1.1188 should spike the price further down towards 1.1150 and 1.1080. If bears fail to tank the price, a bullish spike above 1.1260 might lead the pair to 1.1300. more…

EUR/USD Soon To Turn Decisively Lower?

Fawad Razaqzada

At the moment there is lots of noise around the 200-day moving average for the EUR/USD, and this indecision is reflected in the moving average remaining fairly flat for over the past 7/8 months. But price action continues to look bearish inside what effectively is a long-term consolidation pattern. Yesterday, for example, saw the EUR/USD form a bearish pin bar/doji candlestick pattern on its daily chart as the buyers’ latest attempt to break back above the 200-day MA was rejected. Both the 21-day exponential and 50-day simple MAs are pointing lower now, though they still remain above the 200 MA for the time being. What’s more, the EUR/USD recently broke through a long-term bullish trend line, the backside of which has since turned into resistance. more…