Category Archives: EUR/USD

EUR/USD 1.0660 Zone Keeps Rejecting The Price

Nenad Kerkez

With all eyes firmly on the OPEC meeting this week to see if they cut oil production and raise the Oil price, other key items this week affecting USD is Advance GDP, Consumer Confidence, NFP and Unemployment rate. The EU reports its inflation numbers this week, a key concern for the ECB and Draghi also speaks again. EUR weakness may gain some traction as Italy holds its Constitutional Referendum, a No Vote win could lead to Renzi resigning, political instability in Italy and snap elections sooner rather than later. Bad debts held by Italian Banks stand near EU360Bn, and a No Vote along with political instability may lead to further pressures on Italian Banks ability to remain solvent and ensure the EU Banking systems is sound. more…

Elliott Wave Analysis On EURUSD And Crude OIL

Gregor Horvat

EURUSD is at the lows, so we are now even more confident that pair is making an extended wave three down from 1.0925. We see blue wave three already making a fifth sub-wave to the downside and that is why we need to be aware of a new short-term recovery that can show up. We are talking about blue wave four that can be very interesting to join the downtrend from around 1.0770/90 while price at 1.0864 is not breached. more…

EUR/USD High Momentum Candles On 4h Time Frame

Nenad Kerkez

The Trump’s victory on election reflected on the EUR/USD pair both during the elections and after London open. The pair spiked exactly as predicted in the latest EUR/USD analysis. As expected, the USD plummeted at the pinnacle of the vote count for the US Presidency, with the USD Index touching 95.83. We saw a movement of funds to safe haven currencies like the JPY and CHF, and surprisingly the EUR strengthened too. We saw the EURUSD hit 1.13 during those moments of the vote count, and yet we don’t know the overall impact on global trade as a result of Trump’s trade protectionism plans. We still need to wait and see if the funds leave the USD again. more…

EUR/USD Is Waiting For USD Core Durable Order News

Nenad Kerkez

The EUR/USD is in a range mode waiting for Cored Durable Order data that is scheduled for 12:30 GMT. It represents the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods. If the result is better than expected USD should gain strength and it could be astraight drop from current levels. Bad result could see EUR/USD retracing towards POC within 1.1230-40 zone where we can see confluence of 61.8 and inner trend line. The zone might reject the price towards 1.1188 as the higher time frame trend is bearish. Only a 4h close below 1.1188 should spike the price further down towards 1.1150 and 1.1080. If bears fail to tank the price, a bullish spike above 1.1260 might lead the pair to 1.1300. more…

EUR/USD Soon To Turn Decisively Lower?

Fawad Razaqzada

At the moment there is lots of noise around the 200-day moving average for the EUR/USD, and this indecision is reflected in the moving average remaining fairly flat for over the past 7/8 months. But price action continues to look bearish inside what effectively is a long-term consolidation pattern. Yesterday, for example, saw the EUR/USD form a bearish pin bar/doji candlestick pattern on its daily chart as the buyers’ latest attempt to break back above the 200-day MA was rejected. Both the 21-day exponential and 50-day simple MAs are pointing lower now, though they still remain above the 200 MA for the time being. What’s more, the EUR/USD recently broke through a long-term bullish trend line, the backside of which has since turned into resistance. more…

EUR/USD Tests Key Level As Eurozone Climbs Out Of Deflation

Fawad Razaqzada

Inflation in the Eurozone moved in the positive territory after spending no less than four straights months below zero. According to the Eurostat, the headline ‘flash’ Consumer Price Index (CPI) measure of inflation rose 0.1 per cent in June from -0.1% in May on a year-over-year basis. Core CPI was up 0.9% versus 0.8% previously. Both measures topped expectations by 0.1 percentage points. There was good news from Germany, too, as the rate fell of unemployment remained at a record low level of 6.1% after the number of unemployed fell by a larger-than-expected 6,000 in May. What’s more, German retail sales climbed 0.9% in May when a drop of 0.7% was expected, while the decline in April was revised favourably to -0.3% from -0.9%. In France however, consumer spending declined for the second consecutive month in May, this time by a larger than forecast 0.7% (vs. 0.1% expected). more…

Brexit Vote Could Send EUR/USD Down To 1.0820

Fawad Razaqzada

This week was dominated by headlines and opinion polls regarding the UK’s June 23 EU referendum, and central bank inaction as the Fed, BoJ, SNB and – needless to say – BoE, all decided to keep their policies unchanged. The pound fell, stocks tumbled and yen soared. However, Thursday’s tragic killing of Labour MP Jo Cox saw both Brexit and Leave camps suspend their campaigns. This led to speculation that the Leave camp will now lose support and the bookies cut their odds for Brexit and GBP staged a short-covering bounce accordingly. more…

EUR/USD: Potential 1.1312 After FOMC Today

Nenad Kerkez

It is very possible that Yellen may continue with her hawkish tones at the upcoming FOMC meeting. Nevertheless, as I stated in earlier updates, all eyes will be on the UK referendum this month (23 June 2016) as to whether the UK will remain in the EU. The uncertainty of a Brexit raises many uncertainties around the UK economy and the future of the EU. I do not expect the US Fed to raise rates ahead of the UK referendum. Should the UK decide to remain in the EU, then it is very possible, that the US Fed may raise rates in the July meeting. more…

EUR/USD: Another Sharp Move Likely As Markets Await Yellen

Fawad Razaqzada

Following Friday’s very bad US jobs report, the EUR/USD took out a key short-term resistance level around 1.1215 before rallying hard into 1.1350-70, an area which was formerly support and resistance. There is a danger that this key area may once again turn into resistance, potentially leading to a pullback towards the broken 1.1215 level. Alternatively, a break above 1.1350/70 could see the euro extend its advance towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at just shy of 1.1420 or higher still towards the 1.1465-1.1505 area (old resistance and 78.6% retracement). more…