Category Archives: EUR/USD

EURUSD Is Giving Mixed Signals

Ville Vainio

EURUSD pushed higher Thursday and this puts my wave count to jeopardy. This is still valid count and the upwards move is in 3 waves. If the upwards price action persists, there is likely another count more suitable here. The recent low allows the triangle scenario which I have talked about before. If EURUSD continues higher I am going to adopt the triangle count below. more…

EURUSD To Make New Lows To 1.0695?

Ville Vainio

EURUSD was on a down note with the Greek vote last week adding some volatility to this pair. In my opinion, no matter what, Greece is staying on the Euro zone. I am expecting this pair to decline further before turning bullish for the next corrective wave up. If this is going to be a triangle forming here, the decline should be subdued. If this is following my preferred wave count, This can go much lower. We will find out soon enough which view is correct. more…

EURUSD: all bears need now is a ‘lower low’

Fawad Razaqzada

The EURUSD has been trending lower in recent weeks and the selling pressure has accelerated over the past few days as the investor focus has returned to the interest rate differential between the US and Eurozone economies. Whereas the Fed has signalled that it is ready to hike rates later this year, the ECB has only recently started QE and there were no suggestions from President Mario Draghi today that the bank is ready to trim or end the €60 billion a month stimulus programme early. In fact, Draghi said the ECB has temporarily increased emergency funding to Greek banks by €900m. Thus, the ultra-accommodative monetary policy is here to stay for now and this should in theory put downward pressure on European bond yields, which in turn could depress the euro even further. more…

Oxi!

Ville Vainio

Greeks voted no! without realising the implications of this result. There was not a big reaction on the currency market at the start of trading but the worst is probably still ahead. Market gapped about 100 pips in EUR/USD so nothing major was the result of Greece referendum. My preferred wave count sees this gap low as minuette wave 2. I am looking for bullish upwards move next for this pair and overall strength on Euro. Next upside target is 1.1118 and key levels after that are 1.117 and 1.124 respectively. If this start to decline more, 1.0954 (today’s low) is invalidation level for this wave count. more…

EURUSD Closes The Gap

Ville Vainio

150 pip drop which continued to just over 200 pips on its lowest. This was the result on market open to reflect the news about Greece not getting any more money from taxpayers around Europe. This gap has completely recovered by now and I have labelled this bottom as minute wave B. I am expecting this to start a bullish phase towards new long term highs. This minute wave C of minor wave Y is going to be 5 wave structure and the eventual target for this wave is 1.183. more…

EURUSD: Groundhog Day Is Coming

Peter Adamson

If you did not grow up in North America as I did, you may not be accustomed to the charming tradition of Groundhog Day. The groundhog is a small rodent belonging to the marmot family. On the second of February every year, children all over the continent listen to the traditional story of the groundhog. You see, it is a very timid animal. According to folklore, when the groundhog comes out of hibernation and into the open air, if the weather is sunny it sees its shadow, becomes frightened and goes back into hibernation. I that case winter lasts for another six weeks. If, on the other hand the weather is cloudy, it stays outdoors and spring will come early. more…

EUR/USD Bearish Wedge

Janne Muta

Yesterday’s US May building starts and permits divergence was good news on net but didn’t have an impact on the US Dollar Index. The 11.1% drop in housing starts from an upwardly-revised April cycle-high reflected the tail-end of the winter’s weather gyrations while an 11.8% permits surge to a robust 1.275 mln new cycle-high rate bodes well for housing activity into mid-year. Starts under construction is climbing at a healthy 14% rate into Q2, and home completions have risen 28.3% over the past two months after a 17.3% February-March setback that was likely weather-related. The surge in new home construction and completions will fuel a climb in new home sales into mid-2015. more…