Category Archives: GBP/USD

PRE FOMC Analysis: GBP/USD Is Close To Support

Nenad Kerkez

The main event this month is FOMC Economic projection with statement and Federal Funds Rate decision. Market expects a hike of 0.25 % (from 0.50% to 0.75%). Any deviation from expected result will move the USD heavily. Today’s GBP data was better than expected with Average Earnings Index coming +0.2 % better than expected while the change in the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits during the previous month dropped to 2.4k. more…

Pound Bruised But Not Broken (Again)

Fawad Razaqzada

The pound has fallen sharply over the past couple of days. It has been among (if not) the worst performer in G10 currencies. As well as uncertainty over how and when the Brexit process will start, the pound has been undermined by weakness in UK data as industrial production in October suffered its worst month since 2012. The currency’s latest drop is not exactly gigantic, but it does represent a sizeable retracement against the recent gains made amid hopes of a ‘soft’ Brexit. I do however think the worst of the selling is over as the Bank of England is no longer looking to cut interest rates again. But it nevertheless remains vulnerable to sharp falls here and there. However against weaker currencies like the Japanese yen, it may be able to stage a comeback soon. more…

Pound Bruised But Not Broken (Again)

Fawad Razaqzada

The pound has fallen sharply over the past couple of days. It has been among (if not) the worst performer in G10 currencies. As well as uncertainty over how and when the Brexit process will start, the pound has been undermined by weakness in UK data as industrial production in October suffered its worst month since 2012. The currency’s latest drop is not exactly gigantic, but it does represent a sizeable retracement against the recent gains made amid hopes of a ‘soft’ Brexit. I do however think the worst of the selling is over as the Bank of England is no longer looking to cut interest rates again. But it nevertheless remains vulnerable to sharp falls here and there. However against weaker currencies like the Japanese yen, it may be able to stage a comeback soon. more…

GBP/USD Watch For 1.2225-50 Zone

Nenad Kerkez

The GBP/USD is still sold on rallies as analysed in our previous analysis. Today First Brexit hearing begins in the UK High Court and there could be some whipsaw movements in the currency pair. From technical perspective POC zone comes within 1.2225-50 and the zone is a bit wider due to high ATR. The pair is contained within the equidistant channel and we can spot a confluence of channel top, H3 and bearish order block. If the pair retraces to the zone we might see a rejection towards 1.2150 and 1.2090. Only a 4h close below 1.2090 could tank the pair lower to sub 1.2000 level 1.1990 where we see a confluence of H5 and channel bottom. However if the pair gets above 1.2300 we might see a breakout towards 1.2355 that will be a sign of a deeper retracement in the GBP/USD pair. more…

GBP/USD: After The Flash Crash, What Will NFP Do To Cable?

Fawad Razaqzada

Besides form the obvious question of what the actual hell happened to sterling overnight, there are so many other questions marks participants will be asking themselves. Has the pound now bottomed out, what exactly was the overnight “low,” what will the Bank of England do now? The pound’s crash has obviously overshadowed today’s supposed big event: the US non-farm payrolls report. This is scheduled for release shortly and the headline jobs report is expected to come in at around 170 thousand net jobs gained, which, if correct, would be slightly higher than the prior month’s total of 151 thousand. The unemployment rate is expected to have remained unchanged at 4.9% while the average hourly earnings index is seen rising 0.2% month-over-month. A strong set of data would reinforce expectations that the Fed will raise rates in December. more…

GBP/USD Downtrend Continues

Nenad Kerkez

The GBP/USD made it to all predicted targets. It was like no-brainer trading. Simply we’ve had to short into rallies and it is a free money. Today we might see a rejection from 1.2990-1.3005 as the first POC ( bearish order block, 38.2, Now moment sellers, Pinbar rejection ) towards 1.2863. If the price proceeds above 1.3010 we should consider POC2 1.3070-1.3100 (50,0, H3, DPP). Rejection from this zone will target 1.3000 zone. more…

GBPUSD In Final Stages Of A Downtrend

Gregor Horvat

GBPUSD fell sharply lower last week after vote counts for EU membership showed that UK wants to leave the EU. Pair fell to a new low which was technically expected as you know since we counted bounce from 1.3850 as corrective fourth wave. So despite very strong leg down traders should be aware of a turn back to the upside in weeks ahead since we see price in fifth wave of decline; final wave of a five wave fall from 2015 high. Technically speaking 1.2800-1.3800 can be a support area for the pair. more…