Category Archives: Gold

Gold On Shaky Footing As Dollar Surges To Highest Since 2003

Fawad Razaqzada

Sentiment towards gold remains and grows negative by each passing day. The perceived safe-haven metal’s recent big plunge has been in part due to a sharp improvement in risk appetite, as highlighted for example by the rally in US equity prices. In addition, benchmark global bond yields have been rising, further damaging the appeal of the noninterest-bearing precious metal. But it is the dollar which is exerting the most pressure on the buck-denominated gold, as after all the metal in euro terms is still positive on the week (see the inset). more…

Elliott Wave Analysis On GOLD And German DAX

Gregor Horvat

On the 1H chart of GOLD we are observing a five wave impulse from July lows taking place, with price now trading in a possible correction in blue wave iv. That said we know that after every five wave movement a minimum three wave contra-trend action follows, meaning a little more weakness could come in play. Ideally GOLD will find support around the 38.20 and 50.0 Fibonacci ratio and continue higher. Invalidation level is at 1324- as long as it holds we are looking bullish.  more…

GOLD Reaching For 1330/1340

Gregor Horvat

Gold bounced sharply this month from 1200 area where we see a completed corrective wave II, which can be labeled as a flat or even as a W-X-Y, but in both cases it was a complex correction within uptrend that is now ready to continue. We see current leg up impulsive on lower time frames so it appears that metal is underway to new highs of the year up to 1330-1340 minimum upward projections, but it may go much higher if we consider the wave structure on a weekly time frame. more…

Gold Set For Solid Weekly Gain As EU Stocks Tank

Fawad Razaqzada

Gold is on track to chalk up solid gains for a second week running. Although the dollar has bounced back in the last couple of days of this week, it had fallen sharply the week prior as contrary to the FOMC’s last meeting minutes, the Fed made it clear that a rate hike on Wednesday of next week was highly unlikely as it expressed concerns about the May US jobs report and the potential implications of Britain leaving the EU (Brexit). The probability of a July rate rise has also fallen quite sharply. more…

Gold Looks Poised To Resume Rally

Fawad Razaqzada

Safe haven gold found strong support on Thursday in response to the falling equity markets and US bond yields, with the latter helping to accelerate the USD/JPY sell-off. Profit-taking at the start of Friday’s session saw these assets move in the opposite direction. Gold was thus a touch weaker at the time of this writing after Thursday’s big rally. It remains to be seen whether equities and/or the US dollar will come under renewed selling pressure as we move into the North American session. more…

Gold Steady Ahead Of US Jobs Data After Ending Best Quarter In Nearly 30 Years

Fawad Razaqzada

Ahead of the all-important US jobs report in the afternoon, gold has started the new quarter fairly quietly today after ending the last one 16 per cent better off. It was the best quarter for gold in nearly 30 years, helped by a depreciating US dollar and increased volatility in the equity markets. But as equities rallied in March, the safe haven gold struggled to push further higher even as the dollar weakened. All the same, it didn’t really drop off a cliff. more…

Gold Erases Overnight Gains As Stocks Stabilise, NFP Eyed

Fawad Razaqzada

Gold rallied to a fresh nine-week high of $1112 in overnight trading before dropping by a good $15 to trade back below $1100 at the time of this writing. The People’s Bank of China fixed the USD/CNY lower a day after the Chinese authorities decided to abort the circuit breaker after it was triggered twice this week following the big drops in Chinese stocks. This, as well as short-covering ahead of today’s US jobs report and the weekend helped to stabilise the stock markets which have had their worst ever start to a year in the US and the worst since at least the 1970s in Europe, according to Goldman Sachs. So, gold’s intraday drop is due to the slightly positive tone in the stock markets which has reduced the demand for safe haven assets such as gold. more…

Gold Advances As USD Pauses For Breath Ahead Of FOMC, GDP

Fawad Razaqzada

Gold is up for a second consecutive day and is trading around a good $1173 per troy ounce at the time of this writing. The rallying dollar has paused for breath ahead of the FOMC policy statement tonight and the US GDP data on Thursday, while the upsurge in equity markets have also slowed down, at least for the time being anyway. And with government bond yields in Europe falling further more…

Gold Shining Ahead Of Fed

Matt Weller

In contrast to the usually quite pre-FOMC trading, markets were surprisingly volatile Wednesday. US equity indices were all tacking on around 0.5-0.7%, the greenback is dropping, and commodities are rallying sharply. In addition to Wednesday’s big breakout in oil, Gold has also turned sharply higher, providing some relief for beleaguered bulls. more…

Will gold cross the critical “line in the sand” at 1140?

Matt Weller

The fallout from yesterday’s Federal Reserve minutes has been swift, and in some cases, dramatic. As my colleague Kathleen Brooks noted earlier today, the market saw the minutes as dovish, prompting Fed Funds futures traders to lower their implied probability of a September rate hike to just 38%, from roughly 50% beforehand. The dollar was the big casualty of the release: the trade-weighted dollar index has fallen back below its 50-day moving average near 96.25 as the yield in the benchmark 10-year bond retreated by 10 bps to 2.10%. Interestingly, US stocks, which would theoretically be expected to rally on continued low interest rates, fell nearly 1% yesterday and futures are currently pointing to another big bearish gap today. more…