Category Archives: USD

USD May Stay Soft In Near Term

Daud Bhatti

Although the Fed is in the rate hike cycle, USD rally started to lose momentum early this year when market started to realize that monetary policy divergence started to narrow. ECB has started to talk about rate hikes, while China started to tighten monetary policy by raising money market rates early last month. The Fed also sounded less hawkish in their last rate hike as they forecasted only three rate hikes this year and no Fed members agreed to hike rate four times. more…

Elliott Wave Analysis: USD Index, EURUSD And USDJPY

Gregor Horvat

USD remains on a bearish foot for now, with USD Index still searching for end of a corrective set-back in wave 4) which may happen near 100.60 level this week. At the same time, EURUSD is pointing higher, up to 1.0730 based on our latest wave count which shows an ending diagonal in wave V of 4). If we are correct, then bulls should not exceed 1.0800! So as long that price is not breached we will look for evidences of a strong bearish turn. more…

Dollar’S Consolidative Days Numbered?

Fawad Razaqzada

The dollar’s laborious consolidative days seem to be numbered from both the technical and fundamental points of view. More on the technicals later, but from a fundamental perspective, this makes sense as not only do we have the latest US inflation data coming up later on today, but the much-anticipated Federal Reserve rate announcement on Wednesday is now just around the corner, too. Against a backdrop of deteriorating data, the Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates and a potentially soft reading on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) today could deliver the final nail. more…

Elliott Wave Analysis: Bulls Taking Over USD Index; 96.50 Zone In View

Gregor Horvat

On USD index daily chart we are observing a big sideways pattern since start of 2015; it’s slow and overlapping price action which is a personality of a contra-trend movement that can be completed now. It was a flat correction in black wave IV; a three wave structure where final wave C should be made by five waves. Well, we can see a nice decline from November of 2015 counted in five legs, but as an ending diagonal. That’s a reversal pattern which may send price into a strong bullish mode in the second part of this year, after recent recovery above 95.22 and through the red trendline resistance. That said, be aware of more gains ahead. more…

The Hidden Reasons For The War On Cash

Peter Adamson

Western governments for the most part are bankrupt. US national debt just hit $19 trillion, more than double what it was when the global financial crisis exploded in 2008. A debt that doubles every decade is unsustainable. Where did this madness start? In the 1960’s, really.

I recall as a lad having a discussion with a school teacher. I could not have been more than 8 years old. more…

USD: Putting The Buck’s Beating Into Perspective

Matt Weller

Ahead of tomorrow’s highly-anticipated NFP meeting, sentiment toward the US dollar could hardly be more pessimistic. The world’s reserve currency just saw its biggest 2-day drop in nearly a year and has now given up all of its gains from the start of the year. As we noted yesterday, the move has been driven primarily by fading expectations of any rate hike from the Federal Reserve this year, and the 10-year US treasury bond yield has dropped to a 1-year low below the 1.90% as a result. more…