Category Archives: USD

DXY Expected To Extend Lower

Daud Bhatti

DXY Dollar Index Short Term Elliott Wave view suggests that the Index ended Primary wave ((3)) at 91.01. Primary wave ((4)) bounce is proposed complete at 92.66 as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Wave (W) of ((4)) ended at 92.01, wave (X) of ((4)) ended at 91.71, and wave (Y) of ((4)) is proposed complete at 92.66. Down from there, Intermediate wave (1) ended at 91.97. Intermediate wave (2) bounce is in progress in 3, 7, or 11 swing to correct cycle from 9/14 peak. While bounces stay below there, expect Index to extend lower. We don’t like buying the Dollar Index. more…

USD Index, USDJPY And Crude Oil

Grega Horvat

USD Index is unfolding a nice five-wave drop within red wave iii), which is an indication for even more weakness. Ideally once black sub-wave v fully unfolds, a new three-wave temporary correction into the following wave iv) will show up. The later wave iv) can see limited upside near the former swing high of wave iv at the 92.51 level. more…

DXY Elliott Wave View: Resuming Downside

Daud Bhatti

Revised short term DXY (USD Index) Elliott Wave view suggests the decline from 6/20 peak (97.87) is unfolding as a double three Elliott wave structure. Down from 97.87 high, decline to 95.47 ended Minor wave W, and bounce to 96.51 high ended Minor wave X. Wave Y is unfolding as another double three Elliott wave structure of a smaller degree where Minute wave ((w)) ended at 94.47 and Minute wave ((x)) ended at 95.17. The Index has broken below 94.47 suggesting Minute wave ((y)) lower has started. Down from 94.47, Minutte wave (w) ended at 94.09, and Minutte wave (x) is in progress to correct cycle from 7/20 peak before Index resumes lower. We don’t like buying the proposed bounce and expect sellers to appear after Minutte wave (x) bounce is complete in 3, 7, or 11 swing as far as pivot at 95.17 stays intact. more…

USD May Stay Soft In Near Term

Daud Bhatti

Although the Fed is in the rate hike cycle, USD rally started to lose momentum early this year when market started to realize that monetary policy divergence started to narrow. ECB has started to talk about rate hikes, while China started to tighten monetary policy by raising money market rates early last month. The Fed also sounded less hawkish in their last rate hike as they forecasted only three rate hikes this year and no Fed members agreed to hike rate four times. more…

Elliott Wave Analysis: USD Index, EURUSD And USDJPY

Gregor Horvat

USD remains on a bearish foot for now, with USD Index still searching for end of a corrective set-back in wave 4) which may happen near 100.60 level this week. At the same time, EURUSD is pointing higher, up to 1.0730 based on our latest wave count which shows an ending diagonal in wave V of 4). If we are correct, then bulls should not exceed 1.0800! So as long that price is not breached we will look for evidences of a strong bearish turn. more…

Dollar’S Consolidative Days Numbered?

Fawad Razaqzada

The dollar’s laborious consolidative days seem to be numbered from both the technical and fundamental points of view. More on the technicals later, but from a fundamental perspective, this makes sense as not only do we have the latest US inflation data coming up later on today, but the much-anticipated Federal Reserve rate announcement on Wednesday is now just around the corner, too. Against a backdrop of deteriorating data, the Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates and a potentially soft reading on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) today could deliver the final nail. more…

Elliott Wave Analysis: Bulls Taking Over USD Index; 96.50 Zone In View

Gregor Horvat

On USD index daily chart we are observing a big sideways pattern since start of 2015; it’s slow and overlapping price action which is a personality of a contra-trend movement that can be completed now. It was a flat correction in black wave IV; a three wave structure where final wave C should be made by five waves. Well, we can see a nice decline from November of 2015 counted in five legs, but as an ending diagonal. That’s a reversal pattern which may send price into a strong bullish mode in the second part of this year, after recent recovery above 95.22 and through the red trendline resistance. That said, be aware of more gains ahead. more…