Category Archives: USD/CAD

USD/CAD Down After An Unexpected Rate Hike

Nenad Kerkez

As we have seen tightening in the US by the Fed over the past year, there usually is a correlation with other Western economies following the US lead in returning Monetary Policy to historical levels. In this case, the BoC had increased their rate for the second time in recent months largely following an improvement in GDP Growth, along with price stability in their major export Oil and Gas. Needless to say, BoC is somewhat hamstrung with its ability to continue hiking due to its high household debt levels along with real estate prices in Toronto having dropped 20% since April 2017. more…

USDCAD: Correction Ended

Daud Bhatti

Short term USDCAD Elliott Wave view suggests the decline to 1.2411 ended Intermediate wave (3) of an Elliott Wave impulse structure from 6/2 peak. Intermediate wave (4) bounce is in progress as a flat Elliott wave structure where Minor wave A ended at 1.2576 and Minor wave B ended at 1.2416. Minor wave C is subdivided as an impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 1.2416 low, Minute wave ((i)) ended at 1.253 and pullback to 1.2443 ended Minute wave ((ii)). Pair then rallied more…

USD/CAD Further Bearish Pressure Is Expected

Nenad Kerkez

Following reports from OPEC that supply shall exceed demand in the oncoming year or so, we have a consolidating Crude Oil price around USD44-45/bbl. BoC have increased their rate overnight following signs of inflation. Given this, the USD/CAD could be further sold on on rallies. My previous analysis showed a drop in the pair and I expect this to continue. At this point the pair is just above W H5, and above D L3. According to my CAMMACD method, we could see another drop below D L3. The drop could happen with or without retracement. If we see a retracement, pay attention to POC 1.2790-1.2810 (50.0, W L4, D H3, ATR pivot) where the price could reject. A move below 1.2675 suggests bearish continuation towards 1.2606 all the way down to 1.2485. more…

USDCAD Forecast And BOC Meeting Next Week

Daud Bhatti

Bank of Canada will have a meeting on July 12 to decide the interest rate. USDCAD has declined due to recent comments made by top Bank of Canada officials which seem to suggest that interest rates could be raised soon. The market in fact is pricing in an 82 percent chance of a rate hike next week. In a CNBC interview last week, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said that the two interest rate cuts by Bank of Canada in 2015 have done their jobs in shielding Canadian economy from the steep fall in the price of oil. He also added that the central bank needs to consider its options as excess capacity in the economy is used up. more…

USD/CAD Follows The EMA89 Slope

Nenad Kerkez

If you had signed up for my Live Trading Webinar that is exclusive with Admiral Markets, you could’ve seen how the USD/CAD rejected perfectly from 2 POC zones where both market orders were triggered. The pair is still going down and in the case of any spike to the upside pay attention again to POC 1.2990-1.3005 (D H4, ATR pivot, EMA89) and eventually POC2 1.3035-50 (D H5, W H3, descending trend line, ATR high) where price could reject again. At this point the price is below W H3 and D H3, which signifies a strong downtrend. Continuation below yesterday’s low (1.2912) aims for 1.2895 and 1.2869. Below it is a void zone, where we could see hardly any support all the way down to 1.2780. more…

USD/CAD Contracting Triangle In Uptrend

Nenad Kerkez

The USD/CAD has formed a contracting triangle in the uptrend, signalling for a potential retracement. At this point traders should pay attention to two possible breakout points. A breakout to the upside could happen at the break of 1.3742 level (D H3 and Upper triangle trend line) while a breakout to the downside could happen if 1.3695 breaks (D L3 and Lower triangle trend line). The point where trend lines cross camarilla pivot point is called an X Cross. Target for the upside breakout is 1.3800 while the target for the downside breakout is 1.3635. more…

USDCAD Elliott Wave View: Extending Higher

Short term Elliott Wave view in USDCAD suggest the decline to 1.322 ended Intermediate wave (X). The rally from there is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure where Minute wave ((w)) ended at 1.3525 and Minute wave ((x)) ended at 1.3406. Minute wave ((w)) is subdivided as a Flat Elliott wave structure where Minutte wave (a) ended at 1.3338 and Minutte wave (b) ended at 1.3258. Pair is currently within Minute wave ((y)) which is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure where Minutte wave (w) ended at 1.3626 and Minutte wave (x) FLAT ended at 1.3526. more…

USD/CAD Bullish SHS Pattern Shaping Up

Nenad Kerkez

As we approach the President elect Trump’s inauguration date later this month, the USD data has been very sound to begin the year. Whilst Commodities prices in general have strengthened since Trump indicated he wanted to rebuild America’s infrastructure, the price of Oil has dipped in recent days. Nonetheless, the CAD has been performing pretty well, and on the Daily TF, we seem to have had a double top on this pair at 1.36, that pulls the price down. As you can see on weekly chart the price is retracing towards POC zone where it could shape Inverted Head and Shoulders (Bullish SHS) pattern. more…

USD/CAD Up As Oil Price Retreats

Nenad Kerkez

Following a report that European Oil storages have hit their limits and that Oil tankers were being hired in Europe to store excess Oil, we saw the Oil price retreat over the past week, causing CAD weakness. Trump’s historic Presidential win has only seen USD strength as his fiscal policy plans are likely to lead to more US Debt and Inflationary expectations have risen, meaning a rate hike is a greater chance. more…