Category Archives: USD/JPY

USD/JPY Price Congestion Prior To FED

Nenad Kerkez

As inflation recently in the US has had a recent slight increase near 1.9% p.a., it is still below their target range. Despite this, Actual QoQ GDP Growth has increased to 3%, well ahead of forecast and consensus, and this has seen Forward Company Earnings improve in the US also. The Fed will be conscious of all of this, however, as they saw a small increase in Unemployment and Inflation still below their target levels, they are inclined to keep the rates flat for this month. more…


Grega Horvat

Good morning traders, and welcome to a new busy month which could be very interesting for the markets, that began with a new North Korea nuclear test that caused a gap lower on stocks.

Normally markets quickly recover after such events, so wondering if this time will be the same. Gaps as you know will normally be filled, so with that in mind, we think that upside on E-mini S&P500 is not done yet and that USDJPY can be in fact in final stages of a current wave c. more…

USD Index, USDJPY And Crude Oil

Grega Horvat

USD Index is unfolding a nice five-wave drop within red wave iii), which is an indication for even more weakness. Ideally once black sub-wave v fully unfolds, a new three-wave temporary correction into the following wave iv) will show up. The later wave iv) can see limited upside near the former swing high of wave iv at the 92.51 level. more…

USDJPY Resuming Lower

Daud Bhatti

Short term USDJPY Elliott wave view suggest the decline from 7/11 peak is unfolding as a double three Elliott wave structure. Decline to 108.71 low ended Minor wave W and Minor wave X bounce ended at 110.95 peak. Subdivision of Minor wave Y is unfolding as a Zigzag structure. Minute wave ((w)) of ((Y) ended at 108.59 low and Minute wave ((x)) of (Y) bounce ended at 109.82. The pair has reacted lower from the blue box, but the move lower will get validation only with a break below 108.59. Until then a double correction in Minutte wave ((x)) still can happen. more…

Elliott Wave Analysis: GBPJPY and USDJPY

Grega Horvat

GBPJPY is making a five-wave bearish structure within blue wave c as part of a three-wave consolidation. We see current intra-day structure unfolding an overlapping movement, which can mean a potential ending diagonal within red wave v) of c can be in progress. If that is the case, then once current red wave v) fully unfolds a sharp and strong reversal to the upside can come in play. more…

USD/JPY Descending Trendline Marks The Downtrend

Nenad Kerkez

The USD/JPY has been dropping, making a descending zig-zag pattern which marks the downtrend. The POC zone 112.40-62 (D H4, Trend line, ATR pivot, EMA89) could reject the price towards 111.70 and if the 111.65 breaks to the downside 111.40 and 111.00 should be next. If we don’t see a retracement towards the POC, pay attention to 111.65 and possible breakout below. However if the price breaks above 112.70 we might see a retest of 113.00-113.15 zone.

USD/JPY Zig-Zag Uptrend But Watch For D H4 Resistance

Nenad Kerkez

The USD/JPY has been moving in a zig-zag pattern that indicates uptrend but at this point its close to ATR top/D H4 resistance. We can also see a bearish divergence so we might expect some pullback. The POC zone is 112.00-15 (38.2, D L4, EMA89, ATR pivot). If the price gets there we might see a bounce towards D H5 112.90. However if the price gets to ATR top/ D H5 we might see a rejection towards 112.20-00 again. So watch for both zones in terms of trading as the price might reject from both POC and D H5/ ATR top confluence. more…

USD/JPY Bearish X-Cross Within 111.20 Zone

Nenad Kerkez

The USD/JPY has been dropping lately, but it has been more of a slow grind than momentum surge. During this slow grind, the price has established a POC zone within 111.15-30 (D H4, 38.2, inner trend line, EMA89, ATR Pivot). X-Cross ™ represents the cross of a trendline with an important pivot point or fib level. In this example we have both fib level and a camarilla pivot, so my assumption is that the X cross is strong. Rejections should aim for 110.65. Break of 110.65 aims for 110.36 and 110.17. more…

USD/JPY De-Risking Ahead Of Trump-Xi Meeting

Nenad Kerkez

As shown on Live Trading Session yesterday, the USD/JPY fell as expected due by overnight sell off in equities. Equities dropped due to de-risking ahead of Trump-Xi meeting, so we might see another bearish rejection on retracement. The POC 110.80-95 ( D H3, EMA89, ATR Pivot, trend line) could reject the price towards 110.18. Break below it should target 109.77 – the strongest daily support. more…