Category Archives: USD/JPY

USD May Stay Soft In Near Term

Daud Bhatti

Although the Fed is in the rate hike cycle, USD rally started to lose momentum early this year when market started to realize that monetary policy divergence started to narrow. ECB has started to talk about rate hikes, while China started to tighten monetary policy by raising money market rates early last month. The Fed also sounded less hawkish in their last rate hike as they forecasted only three rate hikes this year and no Fed members agreed to hike rate four times. more…

USD/JPY Master Candle Setup On Intraday Chart

Nenad Kerkez

As we could see on Live Trading Session yesterday both EUR/USD and USD/JPY went in profits. The USD/JPY long from 113.36 tested 113.65 providing approximately 30 pips before FOMC tanked the price.The chart shows previous Master Candles and their respective breakouts. At this point we can see that a Master Candle (MC) has been formed on H1 timeframe. The 1st, 2nd and 3rd candle (after the MC candle has been confirmed) haven’t made any breakout so we need to wait for a price push that might happen around 13:30 after US Employment Claims. Watch for either 113.65 breakout towards 113.80 and 114.15 or 112.94 breakout towards 112.78 and 112.48. Ideally price should proceed above H4 or below L4 to reach its final targets. The ATR of last 14 days is 96 pips. more…

Elliott Wave Analysis: USD Index, EURUSD And USDJPY

Gregor Horvat

USD remains on a bearish foot for now, with USD Index still searching for end of a corrective set-back in wave 4) which may happen near 100.60 level this week. At the same time, EURUSD is pointing higher, up to 1.0730 based on our latest wave count which shows an ending diagonal in wave V of 4). If we are correct, then bulls should not exceed 1.0800! So as long that price is not breached we will look for evidences of a strong bearish turn. more…

Elliott Wave Analysis: USDJPY

Gregor Horvat

On the 4h chart of USDJPY we are observing a nice sharp impulsive development taking place, with price now ideally trading in an unfolding wave 4. We think that correction in wave 4 may be underway, because of the previous minor five wave development that had unfolded in black wave 3. As we know after every five waves, a three wave contra trend follows so in our case, this contra trend could be wave 4, with a possible support seen around the 110.75 level. more…

Elliott Wave Analysis On USDJPY And USDCHF

Gregor Horvat

FX market is moving sideways, with a corrective price move shown on some several USD pairs, so USDJPY can be in a similar position. As we see on the chart, price structure from the last few days looks very tight, meaning it can still be trading corrective within wave four as part of an uptrend. Ideally this correction is a running triangle, that is pointing up into wave v of C towards the 105.00 projected area, while 102.77 support is not breached. more…

USD/JPY Another Higher Low Is Printed Out

Nenad Kerkez

The USD/JPY aka “ninja” has been printing out higher highs and higher lows on intra day charts. If 101.75 holds we might see another push towards 102.70 and 103.05 as we can see a T89 on H4 chart. POC comes withing 102.05-102.18 (trend line/steep trend line, L3, X-Cross ™,historical buyers). Although I am not a fan of steep trend lines, this one follows the price and it is making an X-Cross ™ with other confluence factors. New rejection could use a fresh momentum from a new higher low towards fresh daily highs. However if 101.75 fails we could see a dip towards 101.30. more…

Elliott Wave Analysis On 10 Year US Notes And USDJPY

Gregor Horvat

10 year US notes shows a five wave of decline from July high which is a clear bearish pattern that should send prices even lower after any corrective set-back. The latest price structure, from the last 48 hours suggests, that market has room for a deeper pullback to make a nice A-B-C bounce; a zigzag pattern that can stop this week somewhere around 133’00 area. We will expect a strong drop from that region, as long as July high remains in place. more…

USDJPY Two Crows Keep The Pair In Range

Nenad Kerkez

Today Federal Reserve Chair Jane Yellen and other FOMC members could give us cues about potential rate hike in June. Market doesn’t expect changes in Federal Funds Rate ( 0.50 % vs 0.50 %) decision today so we should focus on the statement itself as it is focused on the future. FOMC members always vote on where to set the target rate. All the individual votes are published in the FOMC statement afterwards. more…

USDJPY PRE FOMC Outlook

Nenad Kerkez

Today’s focus is on FOMC meeting and that is the reason why the market has been calm all day long. We should expect FED to focus on China slowdown, market volatility and weak US data. At the present FED could probably take a pass on policy and mention “patience”. There are 2 possible scenarios: Hawkish scenario would be mentioning another rate hike soon (March) and if the FED skips any mention of raising rate hikes and takes on weak US data in the statement addressing both global and GDP slowdown, the statement will be considered dovish. The statement will come in the written form at 19:00 GMT. more…