USD May Stay Soft In Near Term

Daud Bhatti

Although the Fed is in the rate hike cycle, USD rally started to lose momentum early this year when market started to realize that monetary policy divergence started to narrow. ECB has started to talk about rate hikes, while China started to tighten monetary policy by raising money market rates early last month. The Fed also sounded less hawkish in their last rate hike as they forecasted only three rate hikes this year and no Fed members agreed to hike rate four times. more…

EUR/USD Range Has Formed Two POC Zones

Nenad Kerkez

After a steady uptrend on EUR/USD, we see that important trend line has been broken and the pair has been dropping consistently for 2 days. One of the reasons why EUR/USD is dropping is possibly profit taking which was enacted by hedge funds as French elections grow closer. Today POC zone for selling is 1.0775-90 (D H3, ATR Pivot, inner trend line, EMA89) while we might expect buyers within 1.0665-85 zone (Order block, D L5, W L5, 78.6). Any break of Upper POC range (1.0790) and Lower POC range (1.0665) should establish new intraweek trend. At this point we need to treat this as range play with 2 zones where EUR/USD might react. more…

AUDUSD Elliott Wave View: Pullback In Progress

Daud Bhatti

AUDUSD is showing 5 swings sequence from 12/23/2017 low after it managed to break above 02/23 peak so the sequence is bullish against Intermediate wave (X) low (0.7487). The pair did 5 waves impulsive move from 03/09 low in Minute wave ((a)) which ended at 03/23 peak (0.7749) and currently doing Minute wave ((b)) pullback that’s unfolding as a double three structure. We expect Minute wave ((b)) to complete in the blue box equal legs area (0.7571 – 0.7544) where AUDUSD can resume more…

GBP/USD Might Be Targeting 1.2550 Short Term

Nenad Kerkez

As we could see on previous Session Recap webinar, the GBP/USD perfectly rejected from POC and provided more than 120 possible pips. Another bullish sign that wee see today is Bullish SHS pattern ( Inverted Head and Shoulders) that might provide a continuation to the upside targeting 1.2550. However Retail Sales data might move the price today. On a worse than expected result the pair might drop to POC (Ema 89, ATR pivot, D L4) 1.2430-50 and then it might spike. On a better than expected data look for continuation above 1.2516 towards 1.2550 D H5/ W H4 confluence. more…

AUDUSD Elliott Wave View : 5 Waves Move

Daud Bhatti

AUDUSD ended the correction in Intermediate wave (X) after reaching 0.7486 and then started rallying from there. With today’s new high the pair is showing 5 waves impulsive move from 03/09/2017 low and has already reached the minimum target area for Minutte wave (v) to end. The minimum target for Minutte wave (v) can be calculated as the inverse 1.236-1.618 Fibonacci extension of Minutte wave (iv) which comes at more…

EUR/USD Levels To Watch Prior To FED

Nenad Kerkez

The US Federal Reserve Bank (“the Fed”), has battled to ignite inflation since the GFC and up until now it has raised rates less frequently than the markets have expected, however, this approach may soon change. Today, the Fed is almost universally expected to raise its benchmark interest rates following strong NFP, full employment and an uptick in inflation. The forecast is that the FED will hike the rates by 0.25 % and the event will be volatile as the FED hike might have already been priced in. We need to watch important camarilla levels and POC zones. more…

EURUSD: Elliott Wave Sequence From February Peak

Daud Bhatti

EURUSD Elliott Wave Sequence from 2/2 peak doesn’t support the idea of 5 wave impulse or even a series of 1,2’s. Decline from 2/2/2017 high to 2/15/2017 low was a 7 swing sequence and the decline from 2/16/2017 to 2/22/2017 low was also a 7 swing decline. This means neither leg down from 2/2/2017 peak was in 5 waves. Even if we were to force the bias and view the two legs down from 2/2/2017 peak as a 5 wave move, still the decline from 2/2/2017 peak is not an impulse because more…

NZD/USD Equidistant Channel In A Strong Downtrend

Nenad Kerkez

The NZD/USD has been dropping consistently within the Equidistant channel versus its counterpart USD mainly due to expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand keeps its rate low. Additionally, the dairy prices fell in the overnight auction, adding to overall NZD weakness. The POC zone is 0.6935-50 (H4, DPP, equidistant channel top, ATR top) and we might expect new rejection if the price gets within the zone. 1h momentum or 4h close below 0.6890 marks the continuation towards 0.6858 and 0.6840. The ATR has been low but consistent so the NZD could be also suitable for traders who are afraid to trade volatile pairs. more…

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