USDCHF Trading In A Temporary Correction; More Upside Is Expected

Gregor Horvat

On the Daily chart of USDCHF we are looking at a higher degree complex correction, a three wave A-B-C rise of wave IV, that seems to be in action since end of December of 2014. That said as we can see, pair completed a triangle correction in the connecting wave B and made a sharp reversal higher, above the sub-wave D swing. As such we now believe price may unfold a five-wave movement within the final wave C, before making a higher degree impulsive drop towards new lows. Ideally price will make a run towards the 1.0700/1.0750. more…

GBP/USD POC Zone Is 1.2250-75

Nenad Kerkez

The spike that was caused after Theresa May’s conference was successfully faded as we predicted in the previous GBP/USD coverage. However it has been clear that 1.2250 is very important support and that it needs to break for further bearish continuation. However if GBP/USD keeps above 1.2250-75 (Bullish order block, H3 weekly camarilla, 50.0 fib, EMA89) we might see an extension towards 1.2412 and 1.2480. 1.2300 is support now and the break of support might retest the POC zone. However if 1.2250 breaks to the downside we might see 1.2200 followed by 1.2150. more…

Elliott Wave Analysis: USD Index, EURUSD And USDJPY

Gregor Horvat

USD remains on a bearish foot for now, with USD Index still searching for end of a corrective set-back in wave 4) which may happen near 100.60 level this week. At the same time, EURUSD is pointing higher, up to 1.0730 based on our latest wave count which shows an ending diagonal in wave V of 4). If we are correct, then bulls should not exceed 1.0800! So as long that price is not breached we will look for evidences of a strong bearish turn. more…

EUR/AUD Strict Bullish Wolfe Wave At The Bottom Of ATR

Nenad Kerkez

The EUR/AUD has been dropping heavily but at this point the ATR has already been overshot by 9 points (see the top left corner). We could see a counter trend movement in the pair where the trend line 1-3 might be a signal for a potential breakout for the long trade. Have in mind that this is a potential breakout only as point 5 might still extend to the downside. Signal for breakout is the break of 1.4296-98 to the upside and we might see EPA (Estimated Price at Arrival) target hit. EPA confluence with ATR is 1.4340-52. This is a strict Wolfe Wave because point 4 lies between points 1 and 2. more…

USD/CAD Bullish SHS Pattern Shaping Up

Nenad Kerkez

As we approach the President elect Trump’s inauguration date later this month, the USD data has been very sound to begin the year. Whilst Commodities prices in general have strengthened since Trump indicated he wanted to rebuild America’s infrastructure, the price of Oil has dipped in recent days. Nonetheless, the CAD has been performing pretty well, and on the Daily TF, we seem to have had a double top on this pair at 1.36, that pulls the price down. As you can see on weekly chart the price is retracing towards POC zone where it could shape Inverted Head and Shoulders (Bullish SHS) pattern. more…

GBP/JPY More Downside Expected

Nenad Kerkez

When other pairs are moving in a low ATR, the GBP/JPY aka “The Dragon” simply doesn’t care about thin holiday liquidity. ATR of last seven days is 115 and that leaves traders with a more room to trade it. Technically we have 2 POC zones. The first POC zone 143.35-143.50 (38.2, bearish order block, ATR level) could reject the price should the pair retrace. Slightly above it is POC2 143.60-85 (H3,50.0, DPP, ATR projected top). Traders should pay attention to possible ejections from the zones towards 143.00 and 142.40. more…

EUR/USD Bears Need A Close Below 1.0470

Nenad Kerkez

The EUR/USD spiked from the zone I showed on Session Recap providing pips to traders who traded longs in a form of counter trend trading. Generally speaking, the trend is still bearish and to me it is clear that a weekly close below 1.0470 is needed for further downside. Technically we see 2 most prominent trend lines on H4 chart that mark the downtrend. POC zone is spotted around 1.0410-20 on 4h charts. Weekly close below 1.0470 (slight below weekly camarilla pivot) should open the door for 1.0300 and 1.0280. 1.0470 is a strong order block and historical s/r level. Weekly pivot is making an X cross ™ with a trend line so it just adds to its strength. 4h close below 1.0280 would expose 1.0200. more…

Gold Slumps As Dollar Extends Trump, Fed Rally

Fawad Razaqzada

Precious metals have been big victims of the Trump- and now Fed-inspired dollar rally, especially gold. Silver has only just made a lower low relative to last month’s $16.15/20 print, whereas gold is fast approaching its 2015 lows. Thus precious metal bulls may be better off with silver once a bottom is formed, although this could take a while. Conversely, the bears may be better off with gold. Unlike gold, silver has dual usages as both a precious metal and an industrial material, so it tends to do better than the yellow metal when base metals are rising. For now though, both metals are falling and risk sentiment appears be quite positive despite the rising yields and dollar. So far, no one is paying much attention to gold as a hedge against inflation. But this could be something that could help limit the losses for the metal in the coming months. more…

PRE FOMC Analysis: GBP/USD Is Close To Support

Nenad Kerkez

The main event this month is FOMC Economic projection with statement and Federal Funds Rate decision. Market expects a hike of 0.25 % (from 0.50% to 0.75%). Any deviation from expected result will move the USD heavily. Today’s GBP data was better than expected with Average Earnings Index coming +0.2 % better than expected while the change in the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits during the previous month dropped to 2.4k. more…

Better trader, better profits.