AUD/USD: Bearish Reversal Confirmed

Grega Horvat

AUD/USD has turned up in the past few months, but most likely only temporary as the rally from the low is having an overlapping structure. We know that this is a characteristic of a contra-trend price action, so trend remains bearish for now within impulse that is in play since mid-2014. Ideally, market is now breaking lower, down into wave (5) after recent push beneath the channel line. That said, an impulsive decline could unfold towards April lows. more…

GBP/USD: Fed Speaks, Market Listens

Neal Gilbert

Dollar bulls were back in the saddle again on the first full trading day of this holiday shortened week as speeches from important Federal Reserve members has sparked a bit of USD love. Harkening back to late last week, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen didn’t mince any words in suggesting that rates will most likely be hiked this year, and Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer echoed that same sentiment shortly before lunchtime here in the US today. The confidence in which the two highest ranking members on the Fed’s voting board voiced their intentions has struck a chord with investors and the old saying about “Don’t Fight the Fed” is being respected. Potentially adding to the rate hike fever is the Richmond Fed’s Jeffrey Lacker, a noted hawk, who will be speaking to the LSU Graduate School later this evening. more…

Elliott vs. Gann: Another View Of EUR/USD

Ville Vainio

May 25, 2015 @ 3:53 pm

EUR/USD has come down a little today but not much. This is likely a small degree correction on this minute wave 3 and the decline will accelerate when this correction is finished. My preferred wave count sees this next wave down to reach at least 1.075 level. Eventually this larger bearish trend will continue to new lows beyond 1.046. more…

Time To Sell USD?

Peter Adamson

If you have been following my recent articles on EUR/USD then you must be excited by now. Three reversal dates were forecast based on an observed 40-day cycle. Reversals have occurred on the first two. The third date is this weekend, either Friday or Monday. I was expecting a bottom on the second reversal date, but the market rallied to new highs before retracing. more…

S&P500 Looks For Turning Point

Grega Horvat

S&P500 reached new high as expected, about we talked about in our past updates. We were looking for a three wave rally up into wave 5 that are now visible from 2056 which means that ending diagonal from mid-Mach can be coming to an end. We see price now at important resistance area so traders must be aware of a strong bearish turn in days ahead. However, only an impulse back to the lower side of a pattern will confirm a turning point. more…

USD/EUR: Le monde à l’envers

Peter Adamson

Currency pairs are always quoted the same way, by convention. There is logic behind the choices. They are not arbitrary. Since the US dollar has been the central currency of the world monetary system since Bretton Woods, it it is usually quoted first.

There are exceptions, however. Cable is always quoted the other way around because Sterling was not always a decimal currency and it would not have been possible to quote USD/GBP. You can imagine the exchange rate expressed as £0 d5 p6! The Euro also is an exception. The Euro is quoted first in all EUR pairs, no exceptions, not even good ol’ USD. more…

USD/CHF: Hope for Dollar Bears?

Neal Gilbert

The second half of the North American trading session wasn’t as exuberant as the first half as early stock market gains turned lower in late trade and the USD couldn’t keep up the pace of its early week strength. Some of the reason could be that investors are looking at tomorrow’s event calendar and are realizing that the Federal Reserve will be releasing their monetary policy meeting minutes at 2pm ET. If we harken back to the day the Fed released their statement, you may remember that they were mildly hawkish, accounting most of the economic misses in Q1 2015 to “transitory” effects of weather and low oil prices. That hawkish stance may be exemplified in the minutes as it seems the Fed is hell-bent on raising interest rates in 2015 despite the market beginning to believe it may end up being 2016 before they are able to take the plunge. more…

GOLD: Possible Bounce For New Low

Grega Horvat

Back in March gold price fell close to former lows, so we think that downtrend is still in play, especially if we consider the fact that rally from 1131 to 1306 was made by three waves. As such, we labeled that recovery as wave 4 that is part of an ending diagonal in wave 5). With that said, we will be looking for a possible bounce from new low, from around 1100 area later this year. But for now, bears are still here and expected to resume after current subwave (b) that can be looking for resistance at 1240/1260 resistance area, from where we expect a turn down into wave (c) of 5). more…

EUR/JPY Headed For Correction?

Ville Vainio

intermediate wave 1 topped in early December at 149.772. I have counted a 5 Elliott wave decline as minor wave A and after that a 3 wave advance as minor wave B rally of intermediate wave 2. Next, EUR/JPY should decline further in 5 waves as minor wave C and finding support near 122.00 level. more…

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