USD: Where Do We Go From Here?

Peter Adamson

Yesterday the USD took a hit after the FOMC statement was given at 14:00 ET. Old news. It quickly clawed back about 75% of what it lost, depending on which currency pair you look at. Received wisdom would have it that this somewhat negates the effect of the Fed announcement, and that the dollar will continue its trend, business as usual.

I would not be so quick. EUR/USD rallied from 1.0461 on 16 March to 1.1030 on 18 March, 569 pips. Counting back from Wednesday 16 March, we saw the largest one, two and three day rallies since the beginning of this move last May. The size of the move cannot be written off to “The Fed”. How many announcements have been made by the Fed since last May without such a reaction? The size of a move like this is the measure of the market’s nervousness. So we have a nervous market. more…

EURAUD: Channel Surfing

Neal Gilbert

Markets are waiting patiently in North America this morning for the Federal Reserve to make their monetary policy decision in a few hours from now. While equities are generally lower, it isn’t extreme by any measure, and the USD is pretty much where it was at the end of trading yesterday. Oil has been a more intriguing story as it continues its march toward the $40 level in WTI as inventories are higher, but trading is likely to remain stable but tense as we get closer to the Fed fireworks. However, once that statement drops, wild fluctuations may be the rule instead of the exception.

Tempting as it may be to try and tell you what will happen at the Fed meeting and the market’s reaction thereafter, I could only venture a guess since I left my crystal ball at home this morning. For what it’s worth, I believe more…

USD Short Term Breakout Expected

Ville Vainio

USD/JPY is on a very tight range and this could explode to the upside soon, maybe today when the FOMC statement and Yellen’s press conference come out. I am looking for one push upwards reaching to new highs. On the downside I see 120.5 to be a critical level for this wave count to stay viable.

USD/JPY 4 Hour Chart more…

USD/CAD Double Top?

Peter Adamson

In the mid 2000’s I was trading currency futures, focussing on the Canadian Dollar. I had not yet begun to trade Forex. Like any good Gann student, I maintained a hand-drawn daily chart of the instrument I was trading. The rationale for doing this is simple: when you draw a chart by hand and update it every day, you begin to notice things that you don’t see on a computer screen.

This was when I began to notice a 40 day recurring cycle. It is not an obvious cycle, and like all fixed-length recurring phenomena, it comes and goes. I began to look for this cycle again in the USD/CAD currency pair this week. What I found was interesting. You can see on the accompanying chart, more…

EURUSD: Rallying, but for How Long?

Neal Gilbert

The dawn of a new week is upon us here in North America and we have awoken to see some previously struggling currencies discovering some newfound vigor as they have rallied against the stalwart USD. Of course, the USD has been so strong over the last few months that it seemed that it was only a matter of time before there was some sort of move against it, but the question looms regarding how long this counter-move might last. Looking at the landscape surrounding the USD so far today and later this week could be one effective way of foreseeing the future, and luckily, we have already seen some data released this morning that could give us a clue more…

USD Near Important Reversal

Ville Vainio

The EUR/USD has declined today and seems to need one more wave down to complete this bear trend and turn bullish. The downside target would be around 1.045 and the upside critical level comes around 1.0683.

The next upside target would be to top the previous minuette wave 4 at 1.0906 and downside should limit to 1.0555.

EUR/USD 4 Hour Chart more…

GBPAUD: Resistance of Previous Support

Neal Gilbert

Today was very similar to yesterday at the start of North American trade, at least if you were only looking at the USD in comparison to virtually every other currency on the planet. While equity markets aren’t tanking like yesterday and are actually up on the day so far, the USD continues to be the king of the hill. Not only has the EUR/USD extended even lower, but it is dragging the likes of the GBP/USD, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD right along with it. In the case of the AUD and NZD, there are some alternative influences in the form of employment data and a central bank decision respectively, but the strength of the USD is surely having its share of impact.

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