EURJPY: Supporting the Cause

Neal Gilbert

The North American trading day ended on a sour note as US equities attempted to climb in to the green in the second half of trade, but fell faster toward the end of the day than at any other time. The approximate 1% drop in both the Dow and S&P 500 also provided a bad taste for the end of the first quarter which seemed to be all over the place; up one day, down the next, and so forth. The volatility in stocks isn’t likely to end with Q1 though as the persistence of the Federal Reserve’s “will they, or won’t they” narrative is likely to continue until June at least. Each new US data release helps bolster the case of those who either argue for or against an interest rate increase, so the waters are likely to remain choppy for the time being. more…


Neal Gilbert

The first half of North American trade has been a mixed bag of tricks for traders so far as usual correlations aren’t behaving so well. While the EUR/USD has fallen lower on renewed concerns about Greece, but the typically correlated GBP/USD made a valiant run above the 1.48 level that it has been straddling so far this week. The USD/JPY also continues to hover near 120 even though US stock markets are generally down on the day. Much of the mixing of signals could be attributed to US data releases that only served to muddy the waters as Chicago PMI remained below the 50 boom/bust level for a second straight month whereas it was expected to rise to 52.5. Almost as quickly as the market began thinking bad thoughts more…

S&P 500 May Find Support Around 2020

Grega Horvat

S&P500 is reversing sharply lower and approaching former swing low that will probably be taken out based on strong bearish sentiment. However, any new swing low would still be only third leg down from the high so we suspect that move may still be corrective. Ideally wave B), but just more complex than before, but still part of a wave five that, within a final leg of an ending diagonal. If we are correct, then current strong bearish move should stop around 2020 level where we see nice Fibonacci levels for potential bounce in price. more…

Vivaico Elliott Wave Forecast 26/03/2015

Ville Vainio

After a spike above 1.105 EUR/USD has declined over 100 pips and this is in line with the view that this was just another corrective move up. It is too early to confirm that this is indeed going to decline below the minor wave 3 bottom at 1.0462 but my view is that there is going to be another wave down to new lows.

On the upside if this turns around and completes 5 wave structure the view of bullish reversal gets stronger. more…

USD/CAD: Bottom Range Feeding

Neal Gilbert

The North American morning has been a little different than the past couple days in a variety of ways as equity markets are down, but rallying heading in to lunch and the USD is performing admirably after relinquishing more ground in European trade. Helping the US case is the fact that a majority of US data releases were pretty positive as Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Markit Flash Services & Composite PMIs beat consensus expectations. Federal Reserve member Dennis Lockhart also tried talking some sense in to the market by telling us that it really didn’t matter more…

GBP/USD Daily technical analysis

Alex Bullbearg

As far as we can see on the chart, there was an obvious figure of “triangle”, many traders can mistakenly think that this figure is fulfilled towards “hypotenuse”, however, drawing on my experience, I can say with confidence that it not absolutely exactly. The figure can fulfill in any direction therefore I suggest to place pending orders on both sides, SELL STOP at the level of 1,4850, BUY STOP at the level of 1,5000, the figure is considered fulfilled passing 75% of the basis of “triangle”. It is also possible to trade inside of figure, the trade corridor is clearly visible on chart. Successful trade to all! more…

GBP/USD Finds Support

Peter Adamson

On my last post about GBP/USD I pointed out how the market reversed at the 61.8% time expansion of the previous rally, right at the 61.8% price retracement. The market has rallied above key support at 1.4821 and come back to test it. This support is based on a four month double bottom in 2013 so it is significant. We can now see that the market is once again finding support at this level and has rallied from it during the first half of the London session. We would recommend buying any pull-back on the hourly chart. However, if the market trades below 1.4821, do nothing until it retests 1.4657, which is 180 degrees off the 52 week high of 1.7190. more…

AUD/NZD At Historic Lows

Peter Adamson

AUD/NZD is now trading at its lowest rate for over a decade. The all time high was 1.3794 in March 2011. 270 degrees below that price we have support at 1.0495. The market bounced off that level on 24 January 2014 penetrating it by just 5 pips. It has since retraced and stayed below it for most of the month of March.

Another key support level is 1.0428, the low of 2006. This support was broken for the first time in 8 years on 6 January of this year and the market has traded near this level since. more…

It’s Decision Time

Neal Gilbert

The second half of North American trade pretty much coasted on the coattails of the first half as established pre-conceptions continued to have their influence. The market started up on the day and stayed there without too much volatility even though US data points missed in the morning and Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer echoed the sentiment of Chairwoman Janet Yellen by indicating that the Fed would probably raise rates by the end of the year. Of course, we were already given that line of reasoning last week when Yellen took to the podium after the Fed’s meeting, but there was a great sigh of relief among traders as Fischer essentially verified what the market had interpreted. more…

EUR/CAD: Time For A Turn?

Peter Adamson

From August 2012 to March 2014, EUR/CAD enjoyed a sustained rally of nearly thirty-five cents while EUR/USD had a rather anaemic sideways move by comparison. The Euro then declined against most majors from February/March onwards.

What is interesting about the EUR/CAD pair is the timing of the corrections. The pair clearly found support at the 50 percent level in November 2014 and again in January 2015, then rallied 438 pips very near the 50 percent expansion more…

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