AUDUSD: In Which Dollar Do You Believe?

Neal Gilbert

The second half of North American trade was very similar to the first half in that the USD continued to take a beating at the hands of the rest of the developed world’s currencies. Major currency pairs were all making notable highs against the USD at least once during the day as EUR/USD rose up to 1.07, NZD/USD took out 0.76, GBP/USD burst through 1.48, and USD/CAD went on a rampage by falling over 250 pips and breaking out of its long drawn out range. Even the much beat up upon AUD/USD made a nearly 100 pip run up to 0.77 before retreating slightly as we careen toward the end of the trading day. more…

Elliott Wave Long Term Forecast EUR/USD

Ville Vainio

After reviewing EUR/USD charts I have altered the degree on the wave labelling and also the view of the longer term direction has changed.

This new Elliott wave count and labelling suggests that the bullish trend from October 2000 low of 0.82250 was cycle wave 1 and the decline from the July 2008 high of 1.6037 to date was cycle wave 2. This Elliott wave count suggests that the recent decline from 1.3993 was primary wave C of cycle wave 2. If this large corrective wave has just bottomed, there is going to be massive bull market on EUR/USD, although the bottom might not be in place just yet. more…

Crude OIL: Correction Is Still Unfolding

Grega Horvat

Crude oil fell to a new low in March but this does not mean that corrective fourth wave is complete. In fact, price turned up, back above 50 last week, so we assume that correction is still unfolding. With that in mind, we will be looking even lower once the sideways move is finished. Based on latest price action we assume that energy is forming a triangle pattern. more…

EURGBP: Double Topped and Dropping

Neal Gilbert

The second half of North American trade was not as kind to equity traders as the first half as green figures turned to red soon after lunchtime and stayed there until close. The losses weren’t extreme though with only a 0.45% drop for both Dow and S&P. Commodities were also taking a moderate trip lower while King Dollar once again reasserted his dominance across a variety of currencies. Fears are beginning to heat up again for the euro though as the European Central Bank has a monetary policy decision this week, and Greece can’t seem to stay out of the headlines. The Greek charade this time around is that an anonymous Greek official essentially warned that a default was looming to the Financial Times, and that they have come “to the end of the road.” more…

Elliott Wave Forecast EUR/USD

Ville Vainio

Apr 12, 2015 @ 15:43: EUR/USD declining further today and is under 1.06. There is little more to go in order to reach my first target at 1.046 and looking at this decline, this is likely going to reached.

Apr 9, 2015 @ 15:15: EUR/USD much lower today and like on the other Euro pairs I forecast this is due to weakness on the Euro. EUR/USD is right at the previous minute wave 1 level and should continue lower. This decline looks impulsive and the bearish view is strong. I am looking this to decline towards minor wave 3 low at 1.0462 which should act as next larger target. more…

USDJPY: How Much More Upside Is There?

Neal Gilbert

The story of the day in North American markets was the renewed domination of the US Dollar which rallied against all the other major currencies today as a variety of factors helped the world’s reserve currency dominate. From strong employment figures in Initial Jobless Claims which reached a near 15 year low to US bond auctions that chipped in as well, the USD was on a roll. Even US equity markets joined in on the fun as a relatively subdued early session caught the rally bug in late trade to close in the green on the day.

With all of the USD love being bandied about, it would be hard to find an excuse to go against it. However, we all know that neither rallies nor swoons last forever, and they inevitably more…

EUR/GBP Daily technical analysis

Alex Bullbearg

Currency pair showed the correction movement going beyond sustainable uplink, the formation of which occurred at the beginning of last month. Continuation of corrective movement is still possible, despite the decrease in the intensity of support near 0.7225. Today, traders will focus their attention on the interest rates for the pound and the accompanying statement of the Bank of England, which could easily reverse the underlying sentiments in the market. more…

USD INDEX: Correction Within Uptrend

Grega Horvat

USD Index is moving sideways for the last couple of weeks so downward move may not be so big and deep as we firstly thought. Instead, market is going sideways so it may be a triangle, but important is that price action looks corrective, meaning that sooner or later big uptrend should resume. If triangle is correct count then traders need to be aware of bullish turn as price seems to be in wave (E) now, final leg that can complete triangle this week. more…

USDCAD: Back to the Bottom

Neal Gilbert

For a second straight trading day the European markets were taking a day off as the Easter celebration stretched out on both sides of the weekend, but US markets came back to the table today and began the day reacting to the Non-Farm Payroll eyesore we experienced on Friday. However, in the latter half of trade, USD shorts started to get squeezed as the market perhaps began to realize that one NFP report doesn’t dictate central bank policy. A recent example could be the Federal Reserve’s decision to start tapering Quantitative Easing back in December 2013. They mentioned at the time that a continued taper was a deliberate and data driven decision and they would continue unless something drastic changed their mind. Then in January 2014, NFP logged a 74k reading and followed it up with 113k in February 2014; both huge misses. more…

Dollar/Canada

Peter Adamson

We can see a potential double top in this currency pair, with the highs on 30 January and 18 March of this year. We anticipated this when the market reacted on 11 March, exactly 40 calendar days from the first top. The market has been in see-saw mode ever since, leaving us guessing. This has generally been the case with most US dollar currency pairs. The US dollar rally has run out of steam but everyone has not figured this out yet. Consequently there are enough traders out there to keep bidding it up. This can only go on so long, then the dollar will make the substantial correction we have been waiting for.

As for USD/CAD, it attempted in vain to make new highs only to come back down. It has been in a 483 point range between 1.2350 and 1.2833 since 26 January. I don’t think it is ready to break out just yet, and here is why. more…

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