S&P500: Room to Run?

Neal Gilbert

North American equity markets are feeling pretty healthy this morning as they are edging higher on the day so far, but the USD isn’t feeling the same sort of love. Following the Federal Reserve’s dovish leaning meeting last week, stock markets have gotten their strength back, and the parade of less than stellar economic results of late from the US is making that stance seem more and more justified. This morning’s example of a US data miss was twofold with the Chicago Fed National Activity Index declining 0.11 and Existing Home Sales only increasing 1.2% on expectations of a 1.8% increase. Outside of employment figures outperforming in the US, you’d be hard pressed to find glimmers of hope, and the Fed’s data driven decisions on interest rate hikes look increasingly likely to be delayed well past even mid-2015. more…

GBP/USD: The Big Picture

Peter Adamson

There has been a lot of adrenaline in the markets this week, particularly in respect to the much anticipated statement from the Fed. The dollar tanked on the news, then within 24 hours of the statement, the dollar index returned to its pre-announcement level of 99.27. Many pundits were of the opinion that this was a short term scare move and that the trend would continue as before.

When this happens it is good to take a step back and look at the big picture, and ask: Where are the profits going to be made in the coming days? more…

FOMC Statement Reaction Mixed At Best

Ville Vainio

The FOMC statement yesterday was another specimen of Fed word games. They are now patience without the word patience and they are looking for better employment figures before thinking about rate hikes. The unemployment rate is 5,5% and NFP have topped 200,000 almost constantly every month. How much better can these figures get? Well this is just the Federal Reserve trying to mask their unwillingness to raise interest rates and keep the markets on their toes. Everybody has been expecting these rate hikes for long time now. In my opinion they are not going to raise rates for more that 0,25% if that. Nuff said, Let’s look at EUR/USD and yesterday’s reaction. more…

CAD/JPY: Picking the Underdog

Neal Gilbert

he second half of the North American trading day wasn’t too compelling if you were watching charts as a healthy portion of traders were likely taking extended lunches to enjoy the start of the NCAA Tournament. Therefore the moves of the morning pretty much remained for the duration, but Asia is lying in wait to pick up the liquidity. On tap for the region is Meeting Minutes from the Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of Australia’s Governor Glenn Stevens giving a speech, and a couple of minor New Zealand economic releases. The first two have a decent chance of moving markets particularly now that the world is up to date with the thoughts of the Federal Reserve.

Moving away from the US though may be a wise path to follow for the time being. After witnessing yesterday’s extreme market moves along with today’s reversal of those moves could mean that the market is still trying to figure out what the Fed really meant. In a nod to the aforementioned tournament, sometimes it is better more…

USD: Where Do We Go From Here?

Peter Adamson

Yesterday the USD took a hit after the FOMC statement was given at 14:00 ET. Old news. It quickly clawed back about 75% of what it lost, depending on which currency pair you look at. Received wisdom would have it that this somewhat negates the effect of the Fed announcement, and that the dollar will continue its trend, business as usual.

I would not be so quick. EUR/USD rallied from 1.0461 on 16 March to 1.1030 on 18 March, 569 pips. Counting back from Wednesday 16 March, we saw the largest one, two and three day rallies since the beginning of this move last May. The size of the move cannot be written off to “The Fed”. How many announcements have been made by the Fed since last May without such a reaction? The size of a move like this is the measure of the market’s nervousness. So we have a nervous market. more…

EURAUD: Channel Surfing

Neal Gilbert

Markets are waiting patiently in North America this morning for the Federal Reserve to make their monetary policy decision in a few hours from now. While equities are generally lower, it isn’t extreme by any measure, and the USD is pretty much where it was at the end of trading yesterday. Oil has been a more intriguing story as it continues its march toward the $40 level in WTI as inventories are higher, but trading is likely to remain stable but tense as we get closer to the Fed fireworks. However, once that statement drops, wild fluctuations may be the rule instead of the exception.

Tempting as it may be to try and tell you what will happen at the Fed meeting and the market’s reaction thereafter, I could only venture a guess since I left my crystal ball at home this morning. For what it’s worth, I believe more…

USD Short Term Breakout Expected

Ville Vainio

USD/JPY is on a very tight range and this could explode to the upside soon, maybe today when the FOMC statement and Yellen’s press conference come out. I am looking for one push upwards reaching to new highs. On the downside I see 120.5 to be a critical level for this wave count to stay viable.

USD/JPY 4 Hour Chart more…

USD/CAD Double Top?

Peter Adamson

In the mid 2000’s I was trading currency futures, focussing on the Canadian Dollar. I had not yet begun to trade Forex. Like any good Gann student, I maintained a hand-drawn daily chart of the instrument I was trading. The rationale for doing this is simple: when you draw a chart by hand and update it every day, you begin to notice things that you don’t see on a computer screen.

This was when I began to notice a 40 day recurring cycle. It is not an obvious cycle, and like all fixed-length recurring phenomena, it comes and goes. I began to look for this cycle again in the USD/CAD currency pair this week. What I found was interesting. You can see on the accompanying chart, more…

EURUSD: Rallying, but for How Long?

Neal Gilbert

The dawn of a new week is upon us here in North America and we have awoken to see some previously struggling currencies discovering some newfound vigor as they have rallied against the stalwart USD. Of course, the USD has been so strong over the last few months that it seemed that it was only a matter of time before there was some sort of move against it, but the question looms regarding how long this counter-move might last. Looking at the landscape surrounding the USD so far today and later this week could be one effective way of foreseeing the future, and luckily, we have already seen some data released this morning that could give us a clue more…

USD Near Important Reversal

Ville Vainio

The EUR/USD has declined today and seems to need one more wave down to complete this bear trend and turn bullish. The downside target would be around 1.045 and the upside critical level comes around 1.0683.

The next upside target would be to top the previous minuette wave 4 at 1.0906 and downside should limit to 1.0555.

EUR/USD 4 Hour Chart more…

Better trader, better profits.