S&P500 Looks For Turning Point

Grega Horvat

S&P500 reached new high as expected, about we talked about in our past updates. We were looking for a three wave rally up into wave 5 that are now visible from 2056 which means that ending diagonal from mid-Mach can be coming to an end. We see price now at important resistance area so traders must be aware of a strong bearish turn in days ahead. However, only an impulse back to the lower side of a pattern will confirm a turning point. more…

USD/EUR: Le monde à l’envers

Peter Adamson

Currency pairs are always quoted the same way, by convention. There is logic behind the choices. They are not arbitrary. Since the US dollar has been the central currency of the world monetary system since Bretton Woods, it it is usually quoted first.

There are exceptions, however. Cable is always quoted the other way around because Sterling was not always a decimal currency and it would not have been possible to quote USD/GBP. You can imagine the exchange rate expressed as £0 d5 p6! The Euro also is an exception. The Euro is quoted first in all EUR pairs, no exceptions, not even good ol’ USD. more…

USD/CHF: Hope for Dollar Bears?

Neal Gilbert

The second half of the North American trading session wasn’t as exuberant as the first half as early stock market gains turned lower in late trade and the USD couldn’t keep up the pace of its early week strength. Some of the reason could be that investors are looking at tomorrow’s event calendar and are realizing that the Federal Reserve will be releasing their monetary policy meeting minutes at 2pm ET. If we harken back to the day the Fed released their statement, you may remember that they were mildly hawkish, accounting most of the economic misses in Q1 2015 to “transitory” effects of weather and low oil prices. That hawkish stance may be exemplified in the minutes as it seems the Fed is hell-bent on raising interest rates in 2015 despite the market beginning to believe it may end up being 2016 before they are able to take the plunge. more…

GOLD: Possible Bounce For New Low

Grega Horvat

Back in March gold price fell close to former lows, so we think that downtrend is still in play, especially if we consider the fact that rally from 1131 to 1306 was made by three waves. As such, we labeled that recovery as wave 4 that is part of an ending diagonal in wave 5). With that said, we will be looking for a possible bounce from new low, from around 1100 area later this year. But for now, bears are still here and expected to resume after current subwave (b) that can be looking for resistance at 1240/1260 resistance area, from where we expect a turn down into wave (c) of 5). more…

EUR/JPY Headed For Correction?

Ville Vainio

intermediate wave 1 topped in early December at 149.772. I have counted a 5 Elliott wave decline as minor wave A and after that a 3 wave advance as minor wave B rally of intermediate wave 2. Next, EUR/JPY should decline further in 5 waves as minor wave C and finding support near 122.00 level. more…

S&P500: Bullish Waves Could Slow Down At 2130-2140

Grega Horvat

S&P500 bounced nicely from 2056 levels last week and recovered with clear impulsive manner that caused more strength this week. we were looking for move to a new high which were achieved yesterday, so we need to keep in mind that S&P can be in late stages of an ending diagonal. If we are correct then reversal down will follow in sessions ahead, most likely from around 2130/2140 area. more…

GBP/JPY: Returning to the Channel

Neal Gilbert

The North American trading session has been a bit of a practice in duality as US data showed both strength and weakness with early releases. The employment situation continued to prove robust with Initial Jobless Claims falling by 1k from last week’s total to 264k and Continuing Jobless Claims remaining low as well. In fact, both of the employment figures this morning are showing 4 week averages at levels unseen since 2000, and are likely earning gold stars from the Federal Reserve. Since the Fed has employment as one of their cornerstones for rate decisions, the consistency and breadth of improvements are extremely encouraging. more…

GBP/USD: Bullish Swings In Play Within A Zig-Zag

Grega Horvat

GBP/USD keeps trading higher so we are looking now at a new wave count that shows A-B-C rally from April lows. That’s called a zigzag pattern that has a 5-3-5 structure. Based on latest bullish swings, we assume that wave C is in play but still incomplete as we need five waves before we may look for a bearish turn. At the moment we see prices in an extended blue subwave (iii) that can be looking for a move up to 1.5800 and then even to 1.5900 after fourth wave retracement. So for now, bullish trend remains in play, unless we see a turn back to 1.5357. more…

EUR/USD Is Doing The Dance

Peter Adamson

In my last post I forecast a short correction before a continuation of the current rally. There are three reversal dates coming up. I pointed out that I would be sceptical of a continuation at the first date, 5 May, as it was too soon for this correction. The market did not disappoint. It reversed on that date right on schedule but the reversal ran out of steam and the market came back down. As expected, it is doing the dance to confuse us before it resumes. more…

NZD/JPY: Free Fallin’

Neal Gilbert

The second half of the North American trading day meandered along with very little fanfare for many trading instruments as market trends that started the day continued to persevere to the end of the day. Oil fell below $60 in WTI, the USD enjoyed a little bit of strength, and the NZD continued to get shellacked with reckless abandon. The reason why everyone is down on the Kiwi to start the week has to do with the belief that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be cutting rates not once, but twice before the calendar turns to 2016; a nearly opposite belief of what was expected to start the year. more…

Better trader, better profits.