Tag Archives: EUR

EUR/USD Levels To Watch Prior To FED

Nenad Kerkez

The US Federal Reserve Bank (“the Fed”), has battled to ignite inflation since the GFC and up until now it has raised rates less frequently than the markets have expected, however, this approach may soon change. Today, the Fed is almost universally expected to raise its benchmark interest rates following strong NFP, full employment and an uptick in inflation. The forecast is that the FED will hike the rates by 0.25 % and the event will be volatile as the FED hike might have already been priced in. We need to watch important camarilla levels and POC zones. more…

EURUSD: Elliott Wave Sequence From February Peak

Daud Bhatti

EURUSD Elliott Wave Sequence from 2/2 peak doesn’t support the idea of 5 wave impulse or even a series of 1,2’s. Decline from 2/2/2017 high to 2/15/2017 low was a 7 swing sequence and the decline from 2/16/2017 to 2/22/2017 low was also a 7 swing decline. This means neither leg down from 2/2/2017 peak was in 5 waves. Even if we were to force the bias and view the two legs down from 2/2/2017 peak as a 5 wave move, still the decline from 2/2/2017 peak is not an impulse because more…

Elliott Wave Analysis: USD Index, EURUSD And USDJPY

Gregor Horvat

USD remains on a bearish foot for now, with USD Index still searching for end of a corrective set-back in wave 4) which may happen near 100.60 level this week. At the same time, EURUSD is pointing higher, up to 1.0730 based on our latest wave count which shows an ending diagonal in wave V of 4). If we are correct, then bulls should not exceed 1.0800! So as long that price is not breached we will look for evidences of a strong bearish turn. more…

EUR/AUD Strict Bullish Wolfe Wave At The Bottom Of ATR

Nenad Kerkez

The EUR/AUD has been dropping heavily but at this point the ATR has already been overshot by 9 points (see the top left corner). We could see a counter trend movement in the pair where the trend line 1-3 might be a signal for a potential breakout for the long trade. Have in mind that this is a potential breakout only as point 5 might still extend to the downside. Signal for breakout is the break of 1.4296-98 to the upside and we might see EPA (Estimated Price at Arrival) target hit. EPA confluence with ATR is 1.4340-52. This is a strict Wolfe Wave because point 4 lies between points 1 and 2. more…

EUR/USD Bears Need A Close Below 1.0470

Nenad Kerkez

The EUR/USD spiked from the zone I showed on Session Recap providing pips to traders who traded longs in a form of counter trend trading. Generally speaking, the trend is still bearish and to me it is clear that a weekly close below 1.0470 is needed for further downside. Technically we see 2 most prominent trend lines on H4 chart that mark the downtrend. POC zone is spotted around 1.0410-20 on 4h charts. Weekly close below 1.0470 (slight below weekly camarilla pivot) should open the door for 1.0300 and 1.0280. 1.0470 is a strong order block and historical s/r level. Weekly pivot is making an X cross ™ with a trend line so it just adds to its strength. 4h close below 1.0280 would expose 1.0200. more…

Big Sideways Correction On EURUSD Completed; More Weakness Is Here

Gregor Horvat

EURUSD is turning sharply lower from the 1.1300 level where pair have finally accomplished a big and very long sideways pattern that was located in wave IV. It was a triangle which is now completed because of a decisive break beneath the blue wave D swing at 1.0847 level three weeks ago. As such we are now even more confident that bears may gain more momentum and at the start of a new week, make a decisive breach below blue wave B. more…

EUR/USD Is Waiting For ECB Meeting Today

Nenad Kerkez

Today the ECB meets in an important meeting that may decide whether the ECB QE programme continues at the current rate of EU80Bn in Bonds per month and the duration of the overall programme. Some analysts are suggesting the programme rate may reduce but the overall duration remains the same or longer, hence more assets on the ECB Balance Sheet over the longer term. How the market reacts to this, is much to be seen. FOMC is scheduled for next week, and many analysts tip a rate hike in the US, along with Bond markets pricing at least a 25bps rise, however, I am more of the view that they will wait until Trump’s inauguration as President before they hike, so they might be waiting until the February 2017 meeting. more…

EUR/GBP Potential Upside Move

Nenad Kerkez

The EUR/GBP is has a potential to break the range and proceed to the upside if we see a rejection off POC. POC comes within 0.8510-15 zone ( V shape, DPP, EMA89, trend line). If we don’t see a retracement to POC , pay attention to H1 close above descending trend line. The pair could reach 0.8550, 0.8575 and 0.8615 if there is a H1 momentum or 4h close above 0.8575. Additionally the pair rejected slightly above the bullish order block that is located just above L3 support. This further supports a bullish bias for this pair. more…

EUR/USD 1.0660 Zone Keeps Rejecting The Price

Nenad Kerkez

With all eyes firmly on the OPEC meeting this week to see if they cut oil production and raise the Oil price, other key items this week affecting USD is Advance GDP, Consumer Confidence, NFP and Unemployment rate. The EU reports its inflation numbers this week, a key concern for the ECB and Draghi also speaks again. EUR weakness may gain some traction as Italy holds its Constitutional Referendum, a No Vote win could lead to Renzi resigning, political instability in Italy and snap elections sooner rather than later. Bad debts held by Italian Banks stand near EU360Bn, and a No Vote along with political instability may lead to further pressures on Italian Banks ability to remain solvent and ensure the EU Banking systems is sound. more…

Elliott Wave Analysis On EURUSD And Crude OIL

Gregor Horvat

EURUSD is at the lows, so we are now even more confident that pair is making an extended wave three down from 1.0925. We see blue wave three already making a fifth sub-wave to the downside and that is why we need to be aware of a new short-term recovery that can show up. We are talking about blue wave four that can be very interesting to join the downtrend from around 1.0770/90 while price at 1.0864 is not breached. more…