EUR/USD had a massive decline at the end of the week and the bears seems to be in charge here. The decline went trough the support area around 1.1145 and kept going. This decline is in line with the wave count which has been expecting powerful decline for some time now. Although this decline is still a 3 wave structure, the larger wave structure is supporting the view that we have started the next phase in dollar strength. more…
Pound has moved higher last week, more than we anticipated but still with potential corrective structure. We see three legs from the lows with wave (c) now trading near resistance. Usually corrections of second waves will retrace for nearly 50-61.8% compared to previous five wave move which in our case is very near so bearish turn may follow in sessions ahead. At the same time we also see cable at resistance of the previous swing low from Sep 16th. Technically speaking bears can cause a turning point soon, but downtrend continuation will be confirmed only when price goes beneath 1.5244. more…
EUR/GBP is on a bullish path and is nearing new mid term highs soon. After we have concluded this large corrective phase, larger reversal is expected. My preferred wave count is looking for a small degree 5 wave structure to be completed before larger reversal can occur. We have been on a corrective phase since march of 2015 and are nearing the end of this large structure. more…
The big news in global markets Wednesday was Anheuser-Busch InBev’s higher buyout offer to SABMiller. After the British-domiciled SABMiller turned down offers of £38 and £40 per share earlier, AB InBev raised its latest proposal to £42.15/share for a total value of $104B. If accepted and approved by anti-trust regulators (a big risk to any potential merger), the deal would create an international behemoth responsible for about one-third of global beer supply. more…
Crude oil and crude-related assets like the Canadian dollar have had a volatile session Thursday. Oil prices were initially higher and were on course to finish in the black for the third consecutive session. Sentiment in the oil market was improved on increased geopolitical risks arising from Russia’s military intervention in Syria and worries about supply outages in the US due to the developing Hurricane Joaquin. In addition, risk sentiment had improved more…
EURGBP has broken through important trend line and it has made another leg down. The pair I showing bearish movement on H4 timeframe, and there is a possibility of yet another retest of 0.7190 zone. We can see that trend line has been broken effectively becoming an inner trend line which gave the pair additional momentum to the downside. more…
Can we go back, this is the moment
Tonight is the night, we’ll fight ’til it’s over
So we put our hands up like the ceiling can’t hold us
Like the ceiling can’t hold us
— Macklemore, “Can’t Hold Us”
We’ve looked at pound sterling from a couple of different directions so far this week (see here and here for more), but EUR/GBP may offer the most interesting setup, especially with the European Central Bank meeting concluding Thursday. more…
GBPUSD has been trading inside an equidistant channel which supports the uptrend zig zag. The price has been making higher highs and higher lows which is showing us a scholastic example of uptrend. At 78.6 fib – deeper retracement there is a strong confluence with equidistant channel lower trend line so the price might get a bounce in the zone ( 1.5670-85 ) and try another push toward 1.5740 and 1.5780. That being said if the price gets H4 close above cam H4 level ( 1.5780 ) it will target 1.5855 the confluence spot of H5 and upper equidistant channel. more…
As my colleague Kathleen Brooks noted yesterday in her in-depth preview, today is a major day for the British pound (see “Bank of England: Binge Watching the Bank’s Next Move”). In addition to the monetary policy meeting itself, the Bank of England will also release the minutes from its previous meeting and most importantly of all, its Quarterly Inflation Report, which outlines the policymakers’ longer-term views on the economy and monetary policy. It’s no exaggeration to say that the information revealed during “Super Thursday” could impact trade in sterling not just for the day or week, but for months to come. more…
Pound is at new swing high so rally from 1.4584 will be much deeper but still in three waves, thus move can be corrective. Currently we are tracking wave (C) which could retrace to 61.8% Fibo level before we may start look for a new turn to the downside. more…