Tag Archives: Gold

Will gold cross the critical “line in the sand” at 1140?

Matt Weller

The fallout from yesterday’s Federal Reserve minutes has been swift, and in some cases, dramatic. As my colleague Kathleen Brooks noted earlier today, the market saw the minutes as dovish, prompting Fed Funds futures traders to lower their implied probability of a September rate hike to just 38%, from roughly 50% beforehand. The dollar was the big casualty of the release: the trade-weighted dollar index has fallen back below its 50-day moving average near 96.25 as the yield in the benchmark 10-year bond retreated by 10 bps to 2.10%. Interestingly, US stocks, which would theoretically be expected to rally on continued low interest rates, fell nearly 1% yesterday and futures are currently pointing to another big bearish gap today. more…

Forget Super Thursday: it could be Black Friday for gold

Fawad Razaqzada

Now that Super Thursday is behind us, it could be a Black Friday for gold. Today’s much-anticipated jobs data could provide us a big clue in terms of when to expect a potential rate rise from the Federal Reserve. If the numbers are as strong as the ISM services PMI indicated on Wednesday then calls will increase for a September rate hike. This should help to give the dollar another shot in the arm, which in turn could weigh heavily on gold. Conversely, if the numbers are weaker than expected then the dollar could fall back, leading to a relief rally for gold. Admittedly, the dollar is just one among several factors that determine the direction of gold. But today, it will most likely be the main driver. more…

Gold: moment of truth

Fawad Razaqzada

We have repeatedly commented that gold’s near term outlook does not look bright because of the apparent lack of interest from investors worried about the crisis in Greece. Whereas the European stock markets have fallen quite dramatically in response to the deteriorating Greek situation, the precious metal has barely shown much reaction. Admittedly, this has been in part because of the strength of the US dollars, which has been climbing steadily higher this week in anticipation of Thursday’s US jobs report. As it turned out, more…