Tag Archives: Matt Weller

USD/CHF Hits A 5-Month Low As The SNB Stands Pat

Matt Weller

At the start of the week, we highlighted today’s Swiss National Bank meeting as a potential under-the-radar event risk that many traders were overlooking. As we suspected, the central bank did not make any changes to monetary policy, but did take the opportunity to reiterate its review that the Swiss franc is “still significantly overvalued.” For Switzerland’s heavily export-oriented economy, the value of the currency is one of the most important economic indicators, and the lack of upward pressure more…

USD/CHF: Why Parity May Prove To Be A Near-Term Top

Matt Weller

One of this week’s biggest themes has been the gradual unwind of last week’s excessive moves across global markets, and USD/CHF remains one of the best candidates for reversion. From late January’s high near 1.0200, USD/CHF collapsed nearly 600 pips to the mid-.9600s last week. While the pair did slice through its previous bullish trend line last week, the unit has rallied all the way back to test the underside of the broken trend line once as of writing. more…

USD/SEK: Post-Riksbank Bounce Only Lasted A SEK

Matt Weller

Global markets went into a panic overnight as oil (WTI) took a tumble all the way down to the lower-26.00s, USD/JPY collapsed below 111.00 before an apparent “rate check” by the BOJ, and gold soared to 1240. Meanwhile, lost in the admittedly exciting roller coaster ride of volatility, the world’s oldest central bank surprised traders by cutting interest rates deeper into oversold territory. more…

USD: Putting The Buck’s Beating Into Perspective

Matt Weller

Ahead of tomorrow’s highly-anticipated NFP meeting, sentiment toward the US dollar could hardly be more pessimistic. The world’s reserve currency just saw its biggest 2-day drop in nearly a year and has now given up all of its gains from the start of the year. As we noted yesterday, the move has been driven primarily by fading expectations of any rate hike from the Federal Reserve this year, and the 10-year US treasury bond yield has dropped to a 1-year low below the 1.90% as a result. more…

GBP/USD: Traders Take A Dark View Of Black Friday Sales

Matt Weller

Despite some permabears’ fears, the sun did indeed rise this morning and the world most certainly didn’t end after the first interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve in nearly a decade. As we noted in our instant analysis, the decision was far from the “dovish hike” that many traders had been expecting; for what it’s worth, the median FOMC policymaker still anticipates increasing interest rates four times, or at every other meeting next year, though Fed Funds futures traders are more skeptical, only pricing in a total of two rate hikes, to around 1.0% by end-2016. more…