Tag Archives: Nenad Kerkez

SP500 Adam And Adam Double Bottom Pattern In Progress

Nenad Kerkez

The SP500 has formed Adam and Adam double bottom pattern. Adam pattern is very similar to a W shaped reversal pattern except for the two related bullish spikes that distinguish the pattern from the W bullish. Point 1 and Point 3 form the basis while point 2 is a continuation point. The POC is formed within 2688-2700 zone and the price could spike from the zone towards 2727 (point 2). A 4h close above 2727 should target 2772 followed by 2808 on a further bullish momentum. Only below W L4 – 2662 the price might turn neutral again. more…

GBP/USD Congestion Zone 1.3866-1.3916

Nenad Kerkez

The GBP/USD has been consolidating within the 1.3866-1.3916 zone and we can see a clear congestion without any clear breakout to the upside. UK January CPI remained at 3.0% contrary to the 2.9 % forecast. Technically the price has been supported at 1.3866-76 and while the price bias remains bullish, the pair needs to make a strong 1h candle above 1.3920 in order to proceed further up. Clear break or 4h close above 1.3920 should target 1.3942, 1.3983 eventually reaching 1.4035 W H4 level. However a break below 1.3840 might go for a retest of 1.3799. more…

USD/CAD Might Make A U-Turn If 1.2560 Holds

Nenad Kerkez

The USD/CAD has been in a retracement mode but without an additional momentum to break recent highs. The pair is making a lower high now and if 1.2560 holds we might see a u-turn on the price. Targets are W H3 and W L3 levels – 1.2468 and 1.2376, but in the case you are trading intraday pay attention to W H1 – W L1 levels 1.2437 and 1.2405 respectively. A spike above 1.2560 could turn the price bullish again targeting 1.2606 and 1.2653. more…

USD/CAD Is Below The Chuvashov’s Fork

Nenad Kerkez

Overnight support was found on Oil, as prices have begun to rise once again. This is positive for CAD relative to USD. The USD/CAD is currently below both Weekly and Daily L4 support levels, indicating a strong downtrend. At this point, we can see that the price is trapped below the Chuvashov’s fork (magenta trend lines) and a retest of POC zone 1.2385-1.2400 could see some fresh shorts. However short term rejections are possible also around 1.2365 (blue dotted line). Target is Weekly L5 – 1.2322 where we could see some profit taking and a bounce. USD/CAD long trades are possible if the fork is broken. The break of 1.2440 should be a potential long towards 1.2490 and 1.2544. more…

USD/JPY Triple Bottom Pattern Consolidation Breakout

Nenad Kerkez

As the BoJ commences a slow process of tapering, this in theory has pushed traders into buying JPY. We already saw it in my previous GBP/JPY analysis. In addition, this has the side-effect of selling risky assets, and we saw Equities pullback from recent highs in alignment with rising JPY demand. Whilst US data has been mixed, with Consumer Credit rising, but lower JOLTS jobs openings, all eyes will be on US CPI and Retail Sales data later on Friday. more…

EUR/USD Buying The Dip Continues During Holidays

Nenad Kerkez

The EUR/USD has been bought on the dip that formed the right shoulder of the bullish SHS pattern also known as – Inverted Head and Shoulders. Holiday trading is always risky due to low liquidity, and lower liquidity might in turn, produce higher volatility. But at this point, the trading has been a bit quiet. The ATR for the last 14 days is only 62 pips, and the EUR/USD has made 29 by the time of writing this analysis. As long as the EUR/USD is kept above 1.1835 targets are 1.1890. 1.1905 and 1.1950. Have in mind the ATR projection high is 1.1917, so the pair needs to break above 1.1917 with a stronger momentum to reach the W H4 resistance. If it manages to touch and stay above 1.1906, 1.1950 could be achieved by the end of the week providing we don’t see any profit taking on long trades. more…

WTI Is Bullish But Watch For Crude Oil Inventories Data

Nenad Kerkez

Earlier this week, Oil prices rose as U.S. crude stockpiles showed a drawdown larger-than-expected late last week. In addition, Britain’s largest pipeline from its oil and gas fields in the North Sea had an unexpected shutdown for several weeks due to cracks appearing. This pipeline carries about 450,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Forties crude, and causing supply constraints as the pipeline is the largest out of the five crude oil streams that underpin the Brent benchmark. more…

GOLD Retest Of Cont. SHS Bearish Pattern Is Possible

Nenad Kerkez

Gold might be going through a revaluation phase, where Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are now rivaling it as the preferred risk-off asset or when such inflation risks persist. This crypto hype has potentially weakened some demand for Gold. Furthermore, there is the possibility that the US Fed may hike rates three times over the next 12 months, and this shifts further investments from Gold into Bonds. more…

GBP/JPY Diving Board Reversal Pattern

Nenad Kerkez

The GBP/JPY has formed a variation of a V-shaped pattern named “Diving Board”. The diving board is a reversal pattern that forms after the price makes a flat base than drops down with a high momentum that is followed by a straight-line run-up. V-shaped reversal is created, and the price proceeds up. At this point, we can see two POC zones. The first POC is 149.00-149.10 (D H3, W H3, Order block). Because of the strong trend that we can spot, the first POC zone could show a rejection if the price retraces. If we see a broader retracement below POC1 than pay attention to POC2 (50.0, EMA89, W L3) 148.35-148.66. Rejections from any of POC zones should target 149.90 and 150.47. more…

AUD/JPY Bearish Zig Zag Pattern Aiming For 85.35 If 86.25 Holds

Nenad Kerkez

The AUD/JPY could reject from the POC zone 85.90-95 (50.0, W L5, EMA89, D H3) and as long as 85.18-25 holds we might see a drop towards 85.50 and 85.35. Only if we see a 4h or 1h momentum close below 85.35 the pair might target 85.05 and 84.56. Have in mind that the AUD/JPY is a bi slow moving pair so it might take some time to get to its final target. At this point the focus is on the POC zone more…