Tag Archives: Nenad Kerkez

EUR/USD Trend Lines In Confluence With POC Zone

Nenad Kerkez

The EUR/USD is in a strong bullish trend and as we can see on the chart the price has pierced through 1.1800 driven by risk sentiment and the Spain situation. Today FOMC meeting minutes are the most important event so we might see two-way price action. At this point the price is still going up straight from the trend line and 23.6 fib. Continuation above 1.1855 aims for 1.1880 and 1.1895. However, if the price gets in a retracement phase watch for 1.1760-75 zone (D L4, EMA89, trend line, ATR low, W H3). Targets remain the same if the pair breaks 1.1810 on the bounce up. Only a move below 1.1750 might make a bearish breakout towards 1.1720 and 1.1695. more…

EUR/USD Downward 4 Hour Channel is Broken

Nenad Kerkez

The EUR/USD is trying to break the downward PPR channel and at the same time push above the AP channel. I am favoring a bullish bias as long as 1.1692 holds as I previously analysed in the EUR/USD analysis. If bullish scenario persists 1.1822 is the target followed by 1.1873 and 1.1916. Of course, for that to happen bullish momentum needs to be strong. 4h close above each important level is needed for the price to stair-step to next level (1.1822-1.1873-1.1916) The bullish bias is accompanied by a bullish divergence within the POC zone 1.1750-80. Have in mind this is a completely counter trend outlook. more…

GBP/USD Progressive Bearish Channel Formed

Nenad Kerkez

The GBP/USD has rejected perfectly from 1.3440 as seen in my Session Recap webinar analysis of the German election impact and made a U-turn continuing with a bearish progressive channel zigzag. 1.3435-55 is the first POC zone (D L1,W L3 order block 38.2) and 1.3470-85 is the POC2 (D H3, EMA89, 50.0). Both zones could reject the price towards 1.3400 and 1.3379. Break of daily low at 1.3363 could move the price to 1.3353 and below we might expect a breakout towards the 1.3318-00 zone. more…

USD/JPY Price Congestion Prior To FED

Nenad Kerkez

As inflation recently in the US has had a recent slight increase near 1.9% p.a., it is still below their target range. Despite this, Actual QoQ GDP Growth has increased to 3%, well ahead of forecast and consensus, and this has seen Forward Company Earnings improve in the US also. The Fed will be conscious of all of this, however, as they saw a small increase in Unemployment and Inflation still below their target levels, they are inclined to keep the rates flat for this month. more…

GBPUSD: BOE Decision Important Levels

Nenad Kerkez

The Bank of England MPC decision is due at 11 PM GMT. Market is expecting that policymakers leave interest rates at 0.25 %. But what traders and investors should be focused at is how many of policymakers will vote for a hike and how many will be against the hike. Technically the GBP/USD is in uptrend but that can easily change after today’s data and MPC official bank rate votes. 1.3270-85 is the important zone (W H3, D H4, ATR projection high) and the price could reject from the zone once the zone is hit. If the price proceeds above the zone 1.3330-1.3365 more…

USD/CAD Down After An Unexpected Rate Hike

Nenad Kerkez

As we have seen tightening in the US by the Fed over the past year, there usually is a correlation with other Western economies following the US lead in returning Monetary Policy to historical levels. In this case, the BoC had increased their rate for the second time in recent months largely following an improvement in GDP Growth, along with price stability in their major export Oil and Gas. Needless to say, BoC is somewhat hamstrung with its ability to continue hiking due to its high household debt levels along with real estate prices in Toronto having dropped 20% since April 2017. more…

GBPUSD Weekly L3 And D H4 Confluence In Downtrend

Nenad Kerkez

The GBP/USD broke below 1.2020, the weekly L3 level, thus turning the support into a resistance. After a short breakout that I showed on live trading webinar yesterday, the pair started to retrace towards the POC zone 1.2830-50 (Order block, ATR high, trend line, D H5, EMA89). The price could reject there towards the 1.2880 and 1.2770. Only a break below 1.2768 could spur additional weakness in the pair towards 1.2740 zone. The market is calm at this point but the increased volatility is expected during the 2017 Economic Symposium, “Fostering a Dynamic Global Economy”, which will take place Aug. 24-26, 2017 at Jackson Hole, WY. more…

GBP/JPY MACD Divergence At Monthly Support

Nenad Kerkez

The GBP/JPY has made a temporary bottom at 141.25 and we can see MACD divergence that could push the price to the upside.141.25-50 is the zone where price might spike towards the 142.60-85 where new sellers might be waiting. Only a clear 4h close or h1 momentum above 142.90 should target 143.40. Bearish continuation happens only below 140.90, but at this point, the GBP/JPY is supported by Monthly and Weekly supports and bullish MACD divergence. more…

EUR/USD Two Breakout Points Outside The Equidistant Channel

Nenad Kerkez

The EUR/USD has perfectly rejected from both POCs after the setup and analysis shown on Weekly Recap and at this time it is very clear that the equidistant channel is trapping the price keeping the range bound market still in play. After a fake-out that happened yesterday 1.1720-1.1690 (which was still good to trade as a breakout trade, and what I showed during the Live Trading webinar) we can see two POC zones within the equidistant channel that might push or tank the price. If the price spikes above 1.1778 (EMA89, D H3, channel high) the target is 1.1798 and 1.1825. Above 1.1832 we should see a continuation towards more…