Tag Archives: Nenad Kerkez

GBP/USD Might Be Targeting 1.2550 Short Term

Nenad Kerkez

As we could see on previous Session Recap webinar, the GBP/USD perfectly rejected from POC and provided more than 120 possible pips. Another bullish sign that wee see today is Bullish SHS pattern ( Inverted Head and Shoulders) that might provide a continuation to the upside targeting 1.2550. However Retail Sales data might move the price today. On a worse than expected result the pair might drop to POC (Ema 89, ATR pivot, D L4) 1.2430-50 and then it might spike. On a better than expected data look for continuation above 1.2516 towards 1.2550 D H5/ W H4 confluence. more…

EUR/USD Levels To Watch Prior To FED

Nenad Kerkez

The US Federal Reserve Bank (“the Fed”), has battled to ignite inflation since the GFC and up until now it has raised rates less frequently than the markets have expected, however, this approach may soon change. Today, the Fed is almost universally expected to raise its benchmark interest rates following strong NFP, full employment and an uptick in inflation. The forecast is that the FED will hike the rates by 0.25 % and the event will be volatile as the FED hike might have already been priced in. We need to watch important camarilla levels and POC zones. more…

NZD/USD Equidistant Channel In A Strong Downtrend

Nenad Kerkez

The NZD/USD has been dropping consistently within the Equidistant channel versus its counterpart USD mainly due to expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand keeps its rate low. Additionally, the dairy prices fell in the overnight auction, adding to overall NZD weakness. The POC zone is 0.6935-50 (H4, DPP, equidistant channel top, ATR top) and we might expect new rejection if the price gets within the zone. 1h momentum or 4h close below 0.6890 marks the continuation towards 0.6858 and 0.6840. The ATR has been low but consistent so the NZD could be also suitable for traders who are afraid to trade volatile pairs. more…

USD/JPY Master Candle Setup On Intraday Chart

Nenad Kerkez

As we could see on Live Trading Session yesterday both EUR/USD and USD/JPY went in profits. The USD/JPY long from 113.36 tested 113.65 providing approximately 30 pips before FOMC tanked the price.The chart shows previous Master Candles and their respective breakouts. At this point we can see that a Master Candle (MC) has been formed on H1 timeframe. The 1st, 2nd and 3rd candle (after the MC candle has been confirmed) haven’t made any breakout so we need to wait for a price push that might happen around 13:30 after US Employment Claims. Watch for either 113.65 breakout towards 113.80 and 114.15 or 112.94 breakout towards 112.78 and 112.48. Ideally price should proceed above H4 or below L4 to reach its final targets. The ATR of last 14 days is 96 pips. more…

USD/CNH Steady Uptrend Intact

Nenad Kerkez

Despite the strong Chinese CPI (Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers), the USD/CNH has formed a strong zig zag pattern for possible uptrend continuation. US PPI (Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers) showed better than expected result and technically we might see a POC rejection. POC (50.0, order block, ATR low) 6.8377-6.8450 might reject the price towards 6.8855 and 6.9045. Ideally bulls want to see the price above EMA89 after the POC rejection. If the price breaks below 6.8230 we might see a bearish breakout towards 6.7895. more…

GBP/USD Master Candle Marks Trend Continuation

Nenad Kerkez

As I showed on Session Recap webinar, the GBP/USD has been in a steady uptrend that was almost interrupted by a stop grabber candle that was initiated after bad GBP/USD data yesterday. At this time we can see a Master Candle (MC) formed and a breakout above 1.2518 should spike the price towards 1.2560 and eventually 1.2600 zone. If a MC breaks lower below 1.2474 then it should retrace to POC zone 1.2435-50 where we might see a bounce towards 1.2515 and above. At this point the GBP/USD is still bullish and watch for a possible trend continuation. more…

AUD/NZD For Feb 01 AUD/NZD Bounces Off Support

Nenad Kerkez

The AUD/NZD bounced off support as expected, driven by worse than expected Unemployment Rate (5.2 % vs 4.8 %) while AUD Commodity Prices showed an increase by 10.9%. Technically POC comes within 1.0355-1.0370 (DPP, L3, 61.8, ABCD hist). The up move is supported by historical ABCD pattern at L3 support so on the next retest of POC zone we might see another bounce towards 1.0430 region. If we don’t see a retracement to POC then a strong h1 momentum or 4h close above 1.0435 might push the price to 1.0470. more…

GBP/JPY Inverted Triangle Upside Broken

Nenad Kerkez

Global equities rally that extended in Asia session weakened the Yen and it fell vs its main counterparts USD and GBP. Both USD/GBP/JPY are heavily connected to Equity markets and when Equities are going up both USD/JPY and GBP/JPY are going up too. The pair has formed an Inverted Triangle (ConTriangle) and subsequently broke its top so we might see a retest-continuation. more…

GBP/USD POC Zone Is 1.2250-75

Nenad Kerkez

The spike that was caused after Theresa May’s conference was successfully faded as we predicted in the previous GBP/USD coverage. However it has been clear that 1.2250 is very important support and that it needs to break for further bearish continuation. However if GBP/USD keeps above 1.2250-75 (Bullish order block, H3 weekly camarilla, 50.0 fib, EMA89) we might see an extension towards 1.2412 and 1.2480. 1.2300 is support now and the break of support might retest the POC zone. However if 1.2250 breaks to the downside we might see 1.2200 followed by 1.2150. more…

EUR/AUD Strict Bullish Wolfe Wave At The Bottom Of ATR

Nenad Kerkez

The EUR/AUD has been dropping heavily but at this point the ATR has already been overshot by 9 points (see the top left corner). We could see a counter trend movement in the pair where the trend line 1-3 might be a signal for a potential breakout for the long trade. Have in mind that this is a potential breakout only as point 5 might still extend to the downside. Signal for breakout is the break of 1.4296-98 to the upside and we might see EPA (Estimated Price at Arrival) target hit. EPA confluence with ATR is 1.4340-52. This is a strict Wolfe Wave because point 4 lies between points 1 and 2. more…