Tag Archives: Nenad Kerkez

USD/CAD Is Below The Chuvashov’s Fork

Nenad Kerkez

Overnight support was found on Oil, as prices have begun to rise once again. This is positive for CAD relative to USD. The USD/CAD is currently below both Weekly and Daily L4 support levels, indicating a strong downtrend. At this point, we can see that the price is trapped below the Chuvashov’s fork (magenta trend lines) and a retest of POC zone 1.2385-1.2400 could see some fresh shorts. However short term rejections are possible also around 1.2365 (blue dotted line). Target is Weekly L5 – 1.2322 where we could see some profit taking and a bounce. USD/CAD long trades are possible if the fork is broken. The break of 1.2440 should be a potential long towards 1.2490 and 1.2544. more…

USD/JPY Triple Bottom Pattern Consolidation Breakout

Nenad Kerkez

As the BoJ commences a slow process of tapering, this in theory has pushed traders into buying JPY. We already saw it in my previous GBP/JPY analysis. In addition, this has the side-effect of selling risky assets, and we saw Equities pullback from recent highs in alignment with rising JPY demand. Whilst US data has been mixed, with Consumer Credit rising, but lower JOLTS jobs openings, all eyes will be on US CPI and Retail Sales data later on Friday. more…

EUR/USD Buying The Dip Continues During Holidays

Nenad Kerkez

The EUR/USD has been bought on the dip that formed the right shoulder of the bullish SHS pattern also known as – Inverted Head and Shoulders. Holiday trading is always risky due to low liquidity, and lower liquidity might in turn, produce higher volatility. But at this point, the trading has been a bit quiet. The ATR for the last 14 days is only 62 pips, and the EUR/USD has made 29 by the time of writing this analysis. As long as the EUR/USD is kept above 1.1835 targets are 1.1890. 1.1905 and 1.1950. Have in mind the ATR projection high is 1.1917, so the pair needs to break above 1.1917 with a stronger momentum to reach the W H4 resistance. If it manages to touch and stay above 1.1906, 1.1950 could be achieved by the end of the week providing we don’t see any profit taking on long trades. more…

WTI Is Bullish But Watch For Crude Oil Inventories Data

Nenad Kerkez

Earlier this week, Oil prices rose as U.S. crude stockpiles showed a drawdown larger-than-expected late last week. In addition, Britain’s largest pipeline from its oil and gas fields in the North Sea had an unexpected shutdown for several weeks due to cracks appearing. This pipeline carries about 450,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Forties crude, and causing supply constraints as the pipeline is the largest out of the five crude oil streams that underpin the Brent benchmark. more…

GOLD Retest Of Cont. SHS Bearish Pattern Is Possible

Nenad Kerkez

Gold might be going through a revaluation phase, where Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are now rivaling it as the preferred risk-off asset or when such inflation risks persist. This crypto hype has potentially weakened some demand for Gold. Furthermore, there is the possibility that the US Fed may hike rates three times over the next 12 months, and this shifts further investments from Gold into Bonds. more…

GBP/JPY Diving Board Reversal Pattern

Nenad Kerkez

The GBP/JPY has formed a variation of a V-shaped pattern named “Diving Board”. The diving board is a reversal pattern that forms after the price makes a flat base than drops down with a high momentum that is followed by a straight-line run-up. V-shaped reversal is created, and the price proceeds up. At this point, we can see two POC zones. The first POC is 149.00-149.10 (D H3, W H3, Order block). Because of the strong trend that we can spot, the first POC zone could show a rejection if the price retraces. If we see a broader retracement below POC1 than pay attention to POC2 (50.0, EMA89, W L3) 148.35-148.66. Rejections from any of POC zones should target 149.90 and 150.47. more…

AUD/JPY Bearish Zig Zag Pattern Aiming For 85.35 If 86.25 Holds

Nenad Kerkez

The AUD/JPY could reject from the POC zone 85.90-95 (50.0, W L5, EMA89, D H3) and as long as 85.18-25 holds we might see a drop towards 85.50 and 85.35. Only if we see a 4h or 1h momentum close below 85.35 the pair might target 85.05 and 84.56. Have in mind that the AUD/JPY is a bi slow moving pair so it might take some time to get to its final target. At this point the focus is on the POC zone more…

EUR/JPY Consolidation Breakout Possible

Nenad Kerkez

Different Forex crosses are breaking out of their consolidation phase, making breakouts off the important levels as we could see yesterday in the example of the GBP/NZD. Today we have a consolidation with a possible breakout on EUR/JPY. The POC zone 132.12-132.30 (D H3, EMA89, 38.2,are pivot) could reject the price towards 131.90. Break below 131.90 might target 131.75 and 131.30. The current ATR is 37 pips while the projected ATR is 86 pips so the price still has the room till next support levels.
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USD/CAD Is Waiting For Fundamental Data Release

Nenad Kerkez

The USD/CAD has formed a double top pattern exactly at D H3 pivot. At this point we see a retracement that shows another proof how strong camarilla pivot points are. From a fundamental point of view the market might be waiting for ADP data today as well as CAD Employment change and trade balance. We should see a bit of volatility during the NY/LO Session overlap. From a technical point we see the two POC zones. The first POC 1.2840-55 (order block, EMA89, D L4, 23.6) or the second POC zone 1..2800-15 (inner TL, D L5, 38.2, order block) might reject the price towards 1.2915, 1.2940 and 1.2982 on good ADP / bad CAD data. However if the price drops due to bad USD / good CAD data breakout below 1.2798 should target 1.2774, 1.2740 and 1.2726. Mixed data should keep the price action within the technical outlook. more…

AUD/JPY Drops On Worse Than Expected CPI

Nenad Kerkez

The Australian CPI rose 1.8 percent for the year which was lower than 2 percent expectation. The data hurt the AUD and it made a direct drop to W L4 with an extension to 87.78. At this point shorting on rallies is the option. Short term scalps could come around 88.08 while positional short trades could come at the POC zone 88.25-40 (D L4/L5, W L3, Order block, EMA89, trend line,atr pivot, 50.0 Fib). more…