Tag Archives: Nenad Kerkez

AUD/JPY T-89 Pattern Suggesting A Possible Bounce

Nenad Kerkez

The AUD/JPY pair spiked after a V shaped reversal at the bottom spiking up to 80.30, slightly below H3 camarilla pivot. Now moment price action is showing a completed T-89 pattern right off L4 support where we can see a confluence zone (L4, 38.2, T-89). Since T-89 has been completed we might see a bounce off 79.70 too towards 80.40 and 80.80. Only if the price breaks 80.80 it will make an ascending scallop towards 81.30. Ideally the price should stay above L4 in order for the price to remain bullish. more…

USDCHF Triple Bar Rejection At Resistance

Nenad Kerkez

The USD/CHF is bound in a ranging market just as EUR/USD. As we could see in this article, the EUR/USD is meant to go up (as it is going) and that normally means USD/CHF down due to a negative high correlation.

Technically we can spot a triple pin bar rejection off the H3 resistance and it looks like a failed inverted head and shoulders. Due to a range that USD/CHF is currently in we might see a good r:r if the pair proceeds down. 0.9940-50 is the zone where we could see a rejection and as long as the pair is below 0.9975 targets are 0.9900 and 0.9870. Additionally traders should pay attention to ADP today.

USDCHF Hourly Chart

USDCHF Hourly Chart

Source: admiralmarkets.com

AUDJPY Low Volatility Zone Keeping The Pair Below Resistance

Nenad Kerkez

Equities is ranging, and most indices are on strong support, if they drop again then JPY pairs could drop a lot (more JPY strength). SP500 below 2040 is very bearish and DAX below 9800 is very bearish too. Additionally – RBA is signalling more rate cuts. Once this happens money will go back into JPY and we will see a stronger JPY again. Also it is very important to keep an eye for FOMC meeting today. more…

GBPUSD is showing Reverse Bullish Divergence in a downtrend

Nenad Kerkez

The GBPUSD Construction PMI results and renewed concerns over Brexit have weighted down on the pair and it dropped touching the important level 1.4665 making a double bottom. Double bottom rejected the price and we can see so called Exaggerated or Reverse bullish divergence. If the price is making a double bottom-ish price while at the same time oscillator is making a higher low as we can see on the chart, we say that Reverse Divergence has been formed. If the price breaks an X cross (blue rectangle) – 1.4530 we can expect 1.4555 then 1.4580 and 1.4605. more…

USDJPY Two Crows Keep The Pair In Range

Nenad Kerkez

Today Federal Reserve Chair Jane Yellen and other FOMC members could give us cues about potential rate hike in June. Market doesn’t expect changes in Federal Funds Rate ( 0.50 % vs 0.50 %) decision today so we should focus on the statement itself as it is focused on the future. FOMC members always vote on where to set the target rate. All the individual votes are published in the FOMC statement afterwards. more…

GBPUSD Bullish Flag Suggests Further Upside

Nenad Kerkez

The GBPUSD has washed off Brexit talks and it is showing an upward momentum on intraday time frames. After better than expected Claimant Count change (Change in the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits during the previous month) the pair is showing now moment buyers off 1.4345-60 withing a bull flag. If we add the distance of the flag pole to the possible breakout point we can see that the pair might be targeting 1.4477 and only H4 close or H1 momentum above 1.4477 will target 1.4541. more…

USDCAD Symmetrical Triangle Downside Break

Nenad Kerkez

The USDCAD continued to drop after a bearish breakout of the bottom triangle trend line and its exposed to more downside risks. On April 17 the meeting of OPEC and Russia will be held to confirm oil production cut backs. So far they have agreed to cut backs as they control 75% of world oil supply. Generally that is good for oil and oil price could keep climbing. Remember CAD is positively correlated to OIL, so OIL up CAD up too, and that means USDCAD down. more…

EURUSD PRE FOMC Consolidation

Nenad Kerkez

Today the most important event is FOMC minutes where FED will be providing in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates and future guidance of their economic policy. I personally expect dovish FED minutes because on last meeting chief Yellen implied that only 2 instead of 4 rate hikes would be appropriate for 2016. If the FED confirms and repeats the same outlook today,than they will probably explain it deeper so the minutes should be dovish. Currently I am ruling out April hike and I will be paying a close attention to ANY clue of next interest rate timing. But as with FED its never 100 % sure. more…